2024 CFF Draft Strategy Analysis
2024 CFF Draft Strategy Analysis
Purple Reign must start by pointing out there is no “one way” to approach drafting a CFF team. This guide represents the strategy I have come up with after reviewing the 2024 player pool. You can follow this guide to the letter, or incorporate ideas into the draft strategy you already use. It is purely up to the reader how to use this information.
Before we can dive into the strategy, we must first discuss several principles. I highly suggest reading the article below as the following concepts are explained in detail.
TIERS
Tiers are assigned to players based on their fantasy point projections. I do not adhere to the idea of purely ranking players based on projected point totals. I consider all players in the same tier to be viewed as “equal” which allows a drafter to select the player that they like best. Tiers go from 1 being the best, then counting their way downward. Here is a summary of how you can view different tiers:
Tier 1 – First round draft pick STUDS
Tier 2 – The very best of the non-STUDS
Tier 3 – Really good players to round out your starting lineup
Tier 4 – Pretty good players that can round out your starting lineup or be top-notch bench players
Tier 5 – Above average bench players
Tier 6 & Below – Average bench players that are either low ceiling established players or sleepers
These descriptions are not finite, and this year’s RB group has players that are better than their tier description. But this gives us a starting point of how to view tiers in comparison to one another. Once I have finished my first round of projections I look at how many players from each position group are in each tier. This gives you a feel for how much depth, or lack thereof you can find at different position groups. This information will also help you determine which positions to focus on or wait for during the draft. Here’s the 2024 tier breakdown by position based on the projections featured in the 2024 CFF Draft Guide:
TIER ANALYSIS
QB – Third Priority
There are a total of 20 players with the talent to be worthy starters from Tiers 1-3. This means you can avoid a Tier 1 QB in the first round and wait on drafting your first QB until other people start a QB run later in the draft. Waiting to draft your first QB will help you prioritize other positions of need in the early rounds. I like to avoid selecting my second QB from Tier 4, so at some point you will need to jump in and select a QB2 before the Tier 2-3 players are gone. My personal preference is being aggressive and grabbing two Tier 2 QBs. There are 68 Tier 4-6 players that can round out your bench. Look in the middle rounds of your draft to get your first two bench players, then wait until the later rounds to complete your QB roster. I try to wait on drafting sleeper QBs until after I already have three guys on my roster.
RB – First Priority
There are a total of 6 players with the talent to be worthy starters from Tiers 1-3. Since the RB group is so bottom heavy, you will be forced to draft Tier 4-5 players to fill out your starting RB group. There are good players to round out a starting lineup in these tiers, but you don’t want to ignore the Tier 1-3 players and find yourself with mostly Tier 4-5 players in your starting RB group. This means you should put an emphasis on securing RB starters early in the draft and avoiding sleepers until later. I focus on drafting two Tier 1-3 RBs in the first three rounds to strength my starting lineup. There will be some Tier 4-5 players left over after everyone has completed their starting RB groups. Put an emphasis on landing these remaining players for the first several bench spots even if they are sleepers. There are 82 Tier 6-7 players that can be had later in the draft so focus on Tiers 5 and up while first filling up your bench, then wait on the Tiers 6-7 players late in the draft.
WR – Fluctuating Priority
There are a total of 27 players with the talent to be worthy starters from Tiers 1-3. There is a very large separation between the numbers of players in Tiers 2-3 and Tiers 4-5. Finding WRs who are reliable from Tiers 2-3 are extremely important. In the first five rounds I purely focus on RBs and Tier 2-3 WRs. While the Tier 2-3 players are available, this position group should be your second highest priority. Once they are gone, you have 112 Tier 4-5 players waiting for you. Once you hit this group, you can lower the priority of WRs due to their abundance. I recommend identifying players you like in these tiers and “picking your spots” to grab those players. Don’t fall in love with too many guys because there is a bevy of options here. You can afford to lose one guy you liked but get another one a few rounds later. Once you have all but the last one or two bench spots filled make WRs your lowest priority since the value at other positions will begin to dry up. You can grab sleeper WRs in the last couple of rounds.
TE – Last Priority
There are a total of 14 players with the talent to be worthy starters from Tiers 1-3. There are more than enough TEs for every team to get one of the Tier 2-3 players. Since you will be focusing on RBs and WRs, I advise waiting until other players start a run on TE, and after 5-6 TEs have gone off the board. Since you are waiting on drafting your first TE, I advise picking up your second TE from Tier 3. Try to stay ahead of the next TE run, and if you like being aggressive you can start that TE run yourself. I love prioritizing reliable and experienced players for these first two TE spots. You can wait until the last ten rounds of the draft to look for a third and maybe fourth TE. I only advise drafting a sleeper TE if he’s your TE4.
PLAYER GROUPS
Players vary greatly on how dependable they can be. While I create projections for all players, not every player will live up to those projections. Risk must be taken into account when looking at a player’s ability to live up to fantasy projections. To help highlight this in my draft guide, players have been placed into one of three “player groups.” Each group has a profile of the players within them, and these profiles help you understand the risk involved and when you should consider drafting them.
Group A: Proven Commodities
These are players with an established history of fantasy worthy play. They have a low risk level of living up to fantasy point projections, and a high fantasy point floor. It is best to draft these players for any starting spots and some bench spots.
Group B: Next Man Up
These are players that have shown flashes of fantasy worthy play. They have a slight/moderate risk level of living up to fantasy point projections, and a moderate fantasy point floor. It is best to draft these players for some starting spots and any bench spots.
Group C: High Risk/Reward Sleepers
These are players that have potential to break out into fantasy worthy play. They have a high risk of living up to fantasy point projections, and the lowest fantasy point floor. It is best to draft these players for bench spots only and in the second half of the draft.
SCARCITY
This is a very important concept to track while you’re deciding which position to draft each round. Scarcity is when one position has a low number of players at a specific tier compared to the tiers you could draft from in other positions. We discussed how there are only six Tier 1-3 RBs while in comparison there are twenty-seven Tier 1-3 WRs. The lower amount of RBs in those tiers creates scarcity for that position. The more scarcity at a position group, the more value there is to draft that group. This applies throughout the entire draft. You may really want to draft a WR in round 15, but if you see there is scarcity at the QB then you should draft a QB from that tier before they are all gone. You have more options at WR anyways so you should still find a player later from that same WR tier in the rounds that follow.
AVERAGE DRAFT POSITION (ADP)
The name sums up what this is pretty nicely, it’s the average place in a draft that a player tends to be selected. For example, you are looking to draft a RB in the 8th round and there’s two players you are trying to decide between. The first player has an ADP in round 7 and the second player has an ADP in round 12. This ADP information lets you know that there is less risk in waiting to get the second player, as the first player’s ADP dictates he normally would already be drafted. You can use this information and select the first player while targeting that second player later. Now you can get both players you wanted and built a stronger team. One thing that ADP data does is inform you of how much the internet values players. Players being drafted high have high value, and vice versa.
While using ADP data is valuable during a draft, it is not a law written in stone. There are times when you should follow the crowd and draft a guy a little early, but you should also have faith in your rankings and get a player you want when it’s appropriate. ADP data is the most accurate at the beginning of a draft and the longer a draft progresses the more inaccurate the ADP data becomes. If you are a more experienced fantasy player you can vary from ADP data more frequently. If you are not very experienced as a fantasy player you can lean on ADP in the first half of a draft as it will help you make sure you’re not missing out on a good player.
“MY GUYS”
In the first half of a draft I believe in focusing my approach on scarcity and position tier distributions. The only time I allow myself to reach for a Group A or B player is when scarcity dictates you draft that position. You want to build the most reliable talent from Group A & B players during the first half of your draft. ADP data is most valuable in the first half of a draft as it helps you secure the best talent possible. The first half of the draft will complete your starting lineups and some bench spots.
Once you reach the halfway point of the draft, you can change your focus and start to target players you really like regardless of their “player group” designation. I call these players “my guys.” In the back half of the draft I rely less and less on ADP data. Instead I look for players I want and I target them, even if it means I might drop down one tier for that position. Focus on players that are sleeper players with potential to break out, or reliable Group A & B players that can strengthen any weak areas on the roster. Below you can read the “My Guys” articles for the upcoming season.
SCHEDULE MATCHING
Not all draft formats allow for you to do detailed schedule matching. The time allowed for each draft pick will dictate how involved you can get. You can focus on the season as a whole, or just the playoff weeks. I have created an easy to use “2024 Schedule Matcher Tool” that will help you in this process.
If you are in a draft where there is little time to make your draft picks, I recommend doing some light schedule matching research before the draft. The easiest way to do this is to review Tier 1-3 players and Tier 4 RBs for their playoff week matchups. Identify who has good matchups and you can favor those players in their tiers. You can also identify players who have bad matchups for the playoffs and avoid those players. You don’t want your first draft pick (and hypothetically your best player) to not be able to have good fantasy matchups when you need him most.
If you do have more time available between draft picks you can load your current roster into our Schedule Matcher Tool along with players you’re considering drafting next. This will help you avoid multiple players on the same bye weeks, and multiple players that shared bad matchups during the same week.
Below you can read the “Scheduling Saviors” articles for the upcoming season.
