2024 CFF “My Guys” - Running Backs
2024 CFF “My Guys” - Running Backs
Purple Reign believes that once you reach the halfway point of the draft, you can change your focus and start to target players you really like regardless of their “player group” designation. I call these players “my guys.” In the back half of the draft I rely less and less on ADP data. Instead I look for players I want and I target them, even if it means I might drop down one tier for that position. Focus on players that are sleeper players with potential to break-out, or reliable Group A/B players that can strengthen any weak areas on the roster you’re drafting.
In this article we focus on the “my guys” at quarterbacks with a tier rank of 4 or lower. I highly recommend you read the articles below as they will help provide a better insight to some of the terminology and themes used in this article.
TIER 4 PLAYERS
Terion Stewart (BGSU)
Player Group A
2024 Projected PPG: 17.93
Stewart missed the last four games of the 2023 season with a leg injury, and was limited during spring camp. Over the final three games last season he ran the ball 59 times for 346 yards and 4 TDs as the coaches decided to lean into his abilities. This was the first time head coach Scot Loeffler leaned into his top back since his time at Boston College in 2019 as the offensive coordinator (RB1 averaged 22.7 carries per game). The Falcons lose their second best rusher from a year ago in Ta'ron Keith which paves the way for Stewart to continue receiving an increased workload. Stewart averaged 13.89 carries per game in 2023 and his 2024 projection has been set at a conservative 15 carries per game. The biggest downside to Stewart is his complete absence from the receiving game, meaning all his fantasy production will have to come on the ground.
TIER 5 PLAYERS
Roman Hemby (MD)
Player Group A
2024 Projected PPG: 16.86
Hemby had the best season of his career in 2022 rushing the ball 188 times for 989 yards and 10 TDs paired with his 33 receptions for 298 yards and one TD. Hemby was still the top back in 2023 but the offense focused more on the passing game than the year prior. For 2024 Maryland is replacing starting quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa and things look to be shaping up to have Hemby as the feature of the offense. His projection for this season similarly matches his production from 2022. If a rebuilding offensive line can generate enough push Hemby has the ability to crack 1,000 yards rushing this year. The first five games of the year present great match-ups with UConn, Michigan State, Virginia, Villanova, and Indiana.
LJ Martin (BYU)
Player Group A
2024 Projected PPG: 16.38
Martin smashed his way into the starting running back role in 2023 as a freshman. There were a lot of bumps that season as BYU adjusted to moving into the Big XII conference. Despite averaging only 10.9 carries per game, Martin had 3 games with more than 15 carries. With an offseason in the weight room under his belt expect his workload to increase dramatically as the Cougars will be breaking in a new starting quarterback. 2021 was offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick’s first season at the helm of the BYU offense and the RB1 that season averaged 21.23 carries per game. My projection for Martin in 2024 is at a conservative 17.03 carries per game. Martin has every opportunity to out perform his projection as long as the new starting quarterback can move the chains enough on third down to keep drives alive and get Martin closer to the end zone.
Braylon McReynolds (SoAl)
Player Group C
2024 Projected PPG: 17.14
Fantasy owners love to target players from head coach Major Applewhite’s offense. 2024 sees the Jaguars lose starting QB Carter Bradley, starting RB La'Damian Webb, and leading WR Caullin Lacy. In his last two seasons at South Alabama, Applewhite’s RB1 has averaged 182 carries for 956 yards and 13 TDs on the ground. McReynolds will have to hold off last season’s second leading rusher Kentrel Bullock to live up to his projected 15 carries per game. Another area of concern with McReynolds is that expected starting quarterback Gio Lopez is a dual-threat that can steal rushing touchdown opportunities. Caution must be taken with McReynolds this season but the offensive production that Major Applewhite RB1s put up is enough to keep him on the list.
Hunter Smith (ULMon)
Player Group C
2024 Projected PPG: 16.54
Last season Smith found himself in a split carry situation with Mississippi transfer Isaiah Woullard. With Woullard gone the backfield is solely in Smith’s hands. Enter new head coach Bryant Vincent who previously served as offensive coordinator at New Mexico and UAB. From 2021-2023 the starting running back in Vincent’s offense has averaged rushing the ball 210 times for 1,441 yards and 16 TDs. With the change-over in coaches and offensive system those type of numbers are out of reach for Smith in 2024. With a fantasy ceiling like that there is room for Smith to be very productive in this offense. I am so confident in Vincent’s system that I have taken a shot on Smith in EVERY SINGLE DRAFT this year.
Damien Taylor (Troy)
Player Group C
2024 Projected PPG: 15.97
Taylor will be stepping into the starting running back job which was vacated by Kimani Vidal. Troy hired a new coaching staff with head coach Gerad Parker who previous served as offensive coordinator at Notre Dame, and offensive coordinator Sean Reagan who last served as an offensive coordinator in 2019 at Troy. These two coaches share a history of feeding the starting running back carries with Parker’s RB1 averaging 18.04 carries per game and Reagan’s RB1 averaging 16.85 carries per game. These numbers go in line with comments the staff has made about how this year’s running back will not match the 21.21 carries per game that Vidal had in 2023. Taylor’s 2024 projection is set at a conservative 15.59 carries per game and the coaches’ histories shows he could exceed my projection.
Parker Jenkins (Hou)
Player Group C
2024 Projected PPG: 15.44
Jenkins served as the starting running back in 2023 but was held in check by quarterback Donovan Smith who led the team in rushing attempts. In the offseason Houston hired Tulane head coach Willie Fritz to take over the program. This was great news for Jenkins as Fritz’s staring running back over the last two seasons averaged running 208 times for 1,268 yards and 11 TDs. Smith does return this season and his 2024 projection has him rushing the ball 108 times. This will be a major fact for Jenkins’ prospects to hit 200 carries, 1,000 rushing yards, and 10 rushing TDs. We should get a decent picture of how the carries will be split between these two in the season opener against UNLV.
Jevon Jackson (UTEP)
Player Group C
2024 Projected PPG: 15.26
Jackson decided to move up from the FCS ranks to the FBS. When Austin Peay head coach Scotty Walden was named the new coach at UTEP, Walden made sure to bring his star running back with him. In 2023 Jackson ran the ball 252 times for 1,373 yards and 10 TDs while at Austin Peay. Jake Brown was hired to fill the offensive coordinator position after serving in that role at Louisiana Tech for the last two seasons. Both coaches have very different histories for running back usage, making it more difficult to project Jackson’s workload. Leaning more toward Walden’s history, I have projected Jackson to rush for 217 carries this season. UTEP lost most of their offensive line experience from last year. Jackson has good potential and repour with his head coach and should make him a viable fantasy target for 2024.
Dylan Carson (AF)
Player Group C
2024 Projected PPG: 15.06
Experienced fantasy owners know that the starting superback in head coach Troy Calhoun’s offense has produced high rushing volume year after year. Since 2019 Calhoun’s superback has averaged 19.48 carries per game. Carson looks to step in for the departed Emmanuel Michel at that position. One issue for Air Force’s ground attack is that they return one of the most inexperienced offensive lines in the country. With a schedule that gets harder as the year progresses this will give time for the line to come together against teams like Merrimack and San Jose State to open the season. Carson’s 2024 projection has him rushing the ball 247 times, but his fantasy value will come down to how well this offensive line unit can create holes for him.
TIER 6 PLAYERS
Ayo Adeyi (JMU)
Player Group A
2024 Projected PPG: 14.17
While playing at North Texas last season Adeyi ran for 1,017 yards and 6 TDs while maintaining an astonishing 7.1 yards per carry. This winter he decided to take his talents to James Madison after the school hired Holy Cross head coach Bob Chesney to take over the program. The Dukes also brought in former 4-star prospect RB George Pettaway from North Carolina and new starting QB Dylan Morris from Washington. Chesney’s offenses have featured a dual-threat quarterback which Morris most certainly is not. The coaches have made comments in the spring that James Madison’s offense this year will employ more passing and fewer quarterback rushing attempts which will be picked up by the running backs. This makes players like Adeyi and Pettaway difficult to project accurately. Despite these challenges I still have Adeyi projected to reach 1,000 rushing yards and 10 rushing TDs this season.
Anthony Watkins (Tuls)
Player Group B
2024 Projected PPG: 14.58
2024 will be the second year for head coach Kevin Wilson’s offensive system, and the second year for Watkins as the starting running back. The age of the transfer portal has helped shine a brighter light on the upside that comes for an offense and a player in their second year in an offensive system. Kevin Wilson RB1’s at Ohio State had consistent years of receiving 40% or more of the rushing attempts. Last season Watkins had 38.77% of the team’s rushing attempts. The Golden Hurricane will need to develop an inexperienced offensive line in the first two games of the season against Northwestern State and Arkansas State. While I don’t see Watkins averaging 100+ rushing yards per game this season, he has an eye for the endzone and is projected to have 193 rushing attempts.
Floyd Chalk (SJSU)
Player Group C
2024 Projected PPG: 14.78
This offseason Chalk made the jump from FCS Grambling State to come to San Jose State. The Spartans also brought in a new offensive coordinator in Craig Stutzmann. While known as a passing offensive specialist, Stutzmann’s starting running back last season ran the ball 205 times for 1,228 yards and 9 TDs. During his time as passing game coordinator at Washington State and Hawai’I his RB1 only averaged 130 rushing attempts. 2024 will be Stutzmann’s first season with control over both the passing and running game. My projection for Chalk leans more toward the Texas State side of Stutzmann’s coaching history with Chalk averaging 16.06 carries per game. San Jose State lost a massive amount of experience on the offensive line which could be a factor in holding Chalk’s fantasy prospects in check.