2024 CFF “My Guys” - Quarterbacks
2024 CFF “My Guys” - Quarterbacks
Purple Reign believes that once you reach the halfway point of the draft, you can change your focus and start to target players you really like regardless of their “player group” designation. I call these players “my guys.” In the back half of the draft I rely less and less on ADP data. Instead I look for players I want and I target them, even if it means I might drop down one tier for that position. Focus on players that are sleeper players with potential to break-out, or reliable Group A/B players that can strengthen any weak areas on the roster you’re drafting.
In this article we focus on the “my guys” at quarterbacks with a tier rank of 4 or lower. I highly recommend you read the articles below as they will help provide a better insight to some of the terminology and themes used in this article.
TIER 4 PLAYERS
Jacob Zeno (UAB)
Player Group A
2024 Projected PPG: 24.91
Zeno emerged last season as the Blazers’ starting quarterback under new head coach Trent Dilfer. In 2023 Zeno was able to put up solid numbers for a spot-start fantasy quarterback averaging 23.55 PPG. Now he is back for his second year in Dilfer’s offensive system and has two of his top three pass catchers from last season returning in Amare Thomas and TJ Jones. Zeno isn’t a strong runner so he will have to make the most out of this returning WR core. There’s a trend of teams and players excelling in their second year within the same system which makes me very optimistic about Zeno’s potential in 2024.
Cameron Rising (Utah)
Player Group A
2024 Projected PPG: 24.22
Rising missed the entire 2023 season while recovering from an injury he suffered at the end of the 2022 season. He is now fully healthy and was ripping the ball through the defensive in spring camp. Utah has also beefed up their receiving core with the return from injury of TE Brant Kuithe, the addition of WR Dorian Singer from USC, and what I anticipate to be a break-out season for WR Mycah Pittman. It’s my belief that offensive coordinator Andy Lugwig is going to let the ball fly more than we’ve seen Utah do in the past. Ludwig averages 25.79 pass attempts per game over his career and with Rising in his final season of eligibility, I have Utah projected to throw 29.68 pass attempts per game. Expect Rising to out perform his 2022 season statistics this year.
Graham Mertz (Fla)
Player Group A
2024 Projected PPG: 23.94
What is there not to like about the Florida passing game in 2024? Mertz returns as the starter. Also returning is WR Eugene Wilson who was the second leading pass catcher in 2023 and starting TE Arlis Boardingham. The Gators brought in the talented WR Elijhah Badger from Arizona State this off season as well. Mertz came just shy of 3,000 passing yards last season and his 2024 projections have him throwing for 3,486 yards. Projections also have him raising his 20 passing touchdowns from 2023 to 28 passing touchdowns this season. Offensive coordinator Rob Sale hasn’t had a passing game this talented before and it looks like the sky’s the limit in Gainesville this year.
Devon Dampier (NM)
Player Group C
2024 Projected PPG: 23.90
The Lobos made a splash when the hired Bronco Mendenhall to be the new head coach. Mendenhall has a long history of producing fantasy worthy QBs while at Virgina. In his final three seasons there his QB1s averaged 37.08 PPG, 27.39 PPG, and 27.98 PPG. The offensive system likes to have a mobile quarterback and Dampier is the favorite to win the starting QB job due to his dual-threat skills. As a backup in 2023 Dampier ran the ball 59 times for 328 yards and four touchdowns while averaging 5.56 yards per attempt. Dampier’s 2024 projections have been pushed down a bit due to the installation of a new offensive system and a very inexperienced returning offensive line. Don’t count out his ability to outperform his 2024 projection through the use of his legs and having to play from behind most of the season.
Parker Navarro (Ohio)
Player Group C
2024 Projected PPG: 22.94
Ohio head coach Tim Albin has a history of creating fantasy friendly mobile quarterbacks. Here are some career average stats for Tim Albin quarterbacks: 24.63 PPG, 102 rushing attempts for 499 yards and 8 TDs. Navarro saw limited snaps in 2023 as a backup but ran the ball 25 times for a whopping 7.12 yards per carry. Navarro may be the best running quarterback Tim Albin has ever had and Navarro will need to use those legs as the team breaks in an inexperienced receiver core. Ohio’s returning offensive line is also extremely inexperienced. These issues bring up a fair amount of risk for Navarro to live up to his 2024 projection. Fantasy owners will need to keep a close eye on how Navarro performs in weeks 2-3 against South Alabama and Morgan State.
TIER 5 PLAYERS
Rocco Becht (IaSt)
Player Group A
2024 Projected PPG: 21.49
Iowa State returns and experienced offensive line, its top two receivers in Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel; and top tight end Benjamin Brahmer. An Iowa State quarterback has not averaged 20+ PPG since 2019. While many people don’t view head coach Matt Campbell’s offense as “pass happy,” the Cyclone’s offense has averaged over 35 pass attempts a game in 2022 and 2019. Becht looks poised to be the next guy to do it. My 2024 projections for Becht are at a conservative 30 pass attempts per game. With the wealth of returning talent in the offense, it’s very easy to see the coaches lean on Becht and let him exceed the pass attempt expectations of my projection.
Brendan Sorsby (Cin)
Player Group B
2024 Projected PPG: 22.10
Sorsby transferred to the Bearcats from Indiana and quickly took over the starting quarterback job. After he won the starting job for the Hoosiers, Sorsby finished the last five games of 2023 by throwing for 1,167 yards with 12 TDs and 5 INTs, while running for 156 yards and 3 TDs. The move to head coach Scott Satterfield’s offense will allow Sorsby to use his legs more as quarterbacks have averaged 11 rushing attempts per game in this system. Cincinnati loses the top three pass catchers from last season but the returning players have game experience. Xzavier Henderson looks poised to break-out and should provide a playmaker on the outside to throw to. The Bearcats also return a veteran offensive line which will give Sorsby time in the pocket that he lacked while at Indiana.
AJ Duffy (SDSU)
Player Group C
2024 Projected PPG: 21.95
When Sean Lewis was hired as the new head coach at San Diego State he knew he needed to find a talented quarterback to lead his high-flying offense. Duffy was a four-star recruit out of high school but found himself buried on the Florida State depth chart. He will battle Danny O’Neil in fall camp for the starting quarterback position and many believe Duffy is the favorite. When you review the production from Sean Lewis’ offenses at Kent State, the quarterback averages 25 passing attempts and 11 rushing attempts per game. This means Duffy’s value will be with his legs if he is going to be a fantasy star in 2024. The Aztecs return moderate experience on the offensive line which will aid Duffy’s ability to be productive on the ground.
Tucker Gleason (Toled)
Player Group C
2024 Projected PPG: 21.71
Gleason has spent three seasons in the Toledo offense which will allow for a smooth transition to starting quarterback compared most fantasy sleepers. He is a dual-threat quarterback who averaged 4.58 yards per carry in limited action last season. Quarterbacks under Mike Hallett’s tutelage at Toledo have averaged 9.64 rushing attempts and 44.81 rushing yards per game. To aid Gleason’s transition to starter Toledo returns it’s top three receivers from 2023 in Jerjuan Newton, Junior Vandeross, and Larry Stephens. Gleason shouldn’t have any problem being productive on the ground, so his fantasy value will be tied to how well he can gel with this veteran receiver core.