2024 CFF "My Guys" - Wide Receivers
2024 CFF "My Guys" - Wide Receivers
Purple Reign believes that once you reach the halfway point of the draft, you can change your focus and start to target players you really like regardless of their “player group” designation. I call these players “my guys.” In the back half of the draft I rely less and less on ADP data. Instead I look for players I want and I target them, even if it means I might drop down one tier for that position. Focus on players that are sleeper players with potential to break-out, or reliable Group A/B players that can strengthen any weak areas on the roster you’re drafting.
In this article we focus on the “my guys” at wide receiver with a tier rank of 4 or lower. I highly recommend you read the articles below as they will help provide a better insight to some of the terminology and themes used in this article.
Tier 4 Players
Nick Nash (SJSU)
Player Group A
2024 Projected PPG: 13.04
Nash is the returning pass catcher for the Spartans from last season totaling 80 targets for 48 receptions, 728 yards and 8 TDs in an offense that was more run focused. Craig Stutzmann was hired as the school’s new offensive coordinator in the offseason and he brings with him a rich history of fantasy worthy receivers. In his time as passing coordinator at Texas State, Washington State, and Hawai’i the WR1 position has always played from the slot position. Charles Ross was the starting slot receiver in 2023 but he is now gone, opening a battle to see who will take over the position. Nash played on the outside in 2023 as well as the next best returning receiving from last season Malikhi Miller. Justin Lockhart looks to make a return from injury in 2024 but he also plays the outside position. Someone will have to move inside to the slot and the best guess is that Nash has a slight edge over Miller. Stutzmann’s WR1 has averaged 16.51 fantasy PPG since 2018. If Nash stays on the outside and becomes the WR2 his fantasy hopes are not completely dashed as Stutzmann’s WR2 has averaged 11.92 fantasy PPG since 2018.
Xzavier Henderson (Cin)
Player Group A
2024 Projected PPG: 12.47
Henderson finished the 2023 season as Cincinnati’s top receiver, being targeted 103 times but unfortunately he was only able to find the end zone three times. Quarterback play was inconsistent last season with Emory Jones behind center, but head coach Scott Satterfield brought in Indiana transfer Brendan Sorsby to right the ship. Satterfield’s offenses the last three seasons (Cincinnati & Lousiville) saw the WR1 play from an outside position, and averaged 10.73 targets per game. Henderson is the top returning outside receiver and his 7.59 targets per game from 2023 is below Satterfield’s three-year average. While it looks like Henderson will see an increased workload this season, the key to him finding fantasy success will depend on scoring touchdowns. Satterfield hasn’t had a WR1 average more than 6 touchdowns a season since the 2019 season at Louisville (WR1 scored 11 TDs that season).
Eric McAlister (TCU)
Player Group A
2024 Projected PPG: 12.91
After playing nine games at Boise State in 2023, McAlister decided it was time for a change and left the program. During that shortened season he was a target magnet pulling in 10 targets per game. Josh Hoover returns as the starting quarterback and brings stability to the passing game. TCU’s offense prefers an outside receiver as their WR1, and Savion Williams returns as a starting outside receiver and the team’s top pass catcher form 2023. Both McAlister and Williams have large frames and could contend for the leading receiver role as red zone targets. There is risk that the coaching staff may not favor one receiver and spread the ball around to both McAlister and Williams. Due to this inherent risk its best to draft McAlister in the late rounds of your draft like he were a sleeper.
Hudson Clement (WVU)
Player Group B
2024 Projected PPG: 14.68
It’s not every day that you’ll see a fantasy analyst shine a spotlight on a receiver who led his team the previous season with only 22 receptions for 480 yards and 4 touchdowns, but that is exactly what Clement did as West Virginia’s WR1 in 2023. A large part of Clement’s low numbers were due to quarterback Garrett Greene stepping into the starting role and throwing a poor 53% pass completion rate. This caused Clement to only average 2.91 targets per game last season. When you remove 2023 from head coach Neal Brown’s coaching history, his WR1’s average 8.31 targets per game. Look for 2024 to be a course correction toward Brown’s career coaching stats. Clement’s 2024 projection is set at a conservative 7.05 targets per game.
Kamdyn Benjamin (Tuls)
Player Group B
2024 Projected PPG: 14.59
Benjamin finished the 2023 season as the team’s leading receiver with 75 targets for 47 receptions, 727 yards and 6 touchdowns. He produced those stats during a season where a new offensive system was installed and the quarterbacks struggled with consistency. 2024 is head coach Kevin Wilson’s second season at Tulsa and the offense looks poised to return to the type of production that Wilson has been known for over his career. Look for Wilson to continue to use Benjamin at both an outside and slot position this season. Since 2018 Wilson’s WR1 has averaged 7.49 targets per game and Benjamin received 6.25 targets per game last season. The expected increase in target share for this season has caused Benjamin’s ADP to rise throughout the summer. His current ADP is in the 19th round but as we get closer to the season there’s a chance he will no long slip into the second half of fantasy drafts.
Jameson Tucker (CoCar)
Player Group B
2024 Projected PPG: 13.93
Tucker was the third leading receiver in 2023 for Coastal Carolina, and he enters this season as the top returning outside receiver. 2023 also brought the emergence of future star quarterback Ethan Vasko who started the final four games of the year. Vasko will be looking for a top target in 2024 and Tucker is poised to break-out into that role. Offensive coordinator Travis Trickett returns for his second season at Coastal Carolina, and previously was the offensive coordinator at South Florida and Geargia State. During his career he has featured an outside receiver as his WR1, and funneled 8.83 targets per game to his leading pass catcher.
Amare Thomas (UAB)
Player Group B
2024 Projected PPG: 13.30
Thomas was a first time starter in 2023 and during that season became the team’s second leading receiver. He enters 2024 as the top returning receiver and is joined by returning starting quarterback Jacob Zeno. Both of these players will enter their second year as starters under head coach Trent Dilfer’s offense and look poised to exceed last year’s production. Thomas will have limited reception opportunities compared to other players in this article as his 2024 projection has him receiving a total of 71 targets. He will have to rely on breaking big plays for touchdowns to be a viable fantasy option with that limited workload. It is possible for Thomas to reach 90 targets, but that is a big leap from last season’s leading receiver Tejhaun Palmer who had 66 pass targets thrown his way.
Chris Tyree (UVA)
Player Group C
2024 Projected PPG: 14.60
Last season wide receiver Malik Washington took the fantasy world by surprise. Since offensive coordinator Des Kitchings took over the Virginia offense in 2022, the slot receiver has been the offense’s WR1. Other fantasy analysts are looking for last season’s second leading receiver Malachi Fields to take over the WR1 role. The issue with Fields is that he is an outside receiver, and last season’s back up slot receiver Suderian Harrison isn’t ready for “prime time” just yet. Enter Notre Dame transfer Tyree who played in the slot for the Irish last season. Virginia has funneled an average of 10.83 targets per game at their slot receiver, and Tyree is ready to be the next man up.
Eric Rivers (FLInt)
Player Group C
2024 Projected PPG: 14.23
Florida International is not a passing powerhouse but one thing they do well is funnel the ball to their top receiver. Last season’s leading receiver Kris Mitchell had 109 targets thrown to him. The next leading receivers from a year ago are Rivers and Dean Patterson who both had 49 targets each and return for 2024. Rivers is believed to have an edge over Patterson to become this season’s WR1. FIU returns starting quarterback Keyone Jenkins, its top two rushers from last season in Shomari Lawrence and Kejon Owens, and an experienced offensive line. This will also be Rivers’ second season playing in offensive coordinator David Yost’s system.
Milan Tucker (FLAtl)
Player Group C
2024 Projected PPG: 12.92
Head coach Tom Herman has a history of featuring the slot receiver in his offense going back to 2018. The career average stats for a Herman slot receiver are 126 targets for 93 receptions, 1,152 yards, and 8 TDs. During spring camp Herman stated that the offense would spread the ball around more than normal but time will tell if this is just “coach speak.” Je'Quan Burton is the team’s top returning receiver but he plays in the outside position. There are three possible names for the slot position heading into fall camp. Tucker is a slot receiver who transferred in from Appalachian State, and with 50 career game appearances looks to be the leading candidate. Omari Hayes is another slot receiver and has experience in Herman’s system. He made just two game appearances last season but did not record a single reception. The final name is Marlyn Johnson who played a mix of snaps from both the slot and outside positions in 2023. He is a transfer from Buffalo and has recorded 36 career game appearances.
TIER 5
Da'Quan Felton (VaTec)
Player Group B
2024 Projected PPG: 11.99
Felton led the Hokies in receiving last season; being targeted 75 times for 38 receptions, 667 yards and 8 TDs. Quarterback Kyron Drones was a first-time starter in 2023 and struggled with a 58.2% pass completion rate. 2024 will be Felton and Drone’s second year starting together and an increase in efficiency statistics should be expected. Last season Felton has a reception rate of just 50.67%. His 2024 projection is raised up to a 56% reception rate. If he and Drones can improve their chemistry and Felton breaks through the 60% reception rate mark, he could become a very dangerous weapon for the Hokies in 2024.
Lawrence Arnold (Kans)
Player Group B
2024 Projected PPG: 11.85
Kansas has all three of its top returning receivers back from a year ago. Outside receiver Arnold, slot receiver Luke Grimm, and balanced receiver (both outside & slot snaps) Quentin Skinner all had between 50-59 targets last season. Arnold was the leading receiver of the group and last season was an anomaly for WR1 targets. From 2018-2022 head coach Lance Leipold’s WR1 has averaged 88.8 targets a season. To get help back to those historical trends Arnold will have the return of quarterback Jalon Daniels who was the starting quarterback at the beginning of the 2022-2023 seasons before injuries sidelined him. Arnold’s 2024 projection has him receiving 85 targets compared to the 59 targets he saw in 2023. His projection requires Daniels to be able to stay healthy and feed him the ball for the entire season.
Devin Voisin (SoAl)
Player Group B
2024 Projected PPG: 10.61
Voisin had garnered attention leading up the 2023 season but only played in two games before he suffered a knee injury. That injury kept him out of this year’s spring camp but looks to be on track to rejoin practice in fall camp. Voisin played in an outside position and will have to contend with both returning outside starting receivers Jamaal Pritchett and Javon Ivory. Voisin’s current projection is based on him winning the WR1 job and it is not a lock that Voisin will take the WR1 position from Prichett who many are considering the favorite in this race. As of the time of this article, Prichett has an ADP in the 4th round with Voisin’s ADP in the 30th round. While there is risk that drafting Voisin could be a “swing and a miss” draft pick, he is going so late in the draft you won’t have to spend a high draft pick to take a chance on him.
Kris Hutson (WaSt)
Player Group C
2024 Projected PPG: 12.36
Hutson transfers in from Oregon where injury cut his 2023 season short. In his four seasons at Oregon Hutson played a mix of snaps from both the outside and slot positions. There is some debate as to which receiver position should be the WR1 in the Cougar offense. Jake Dickert is a defensive coach, but in his two seasons as head coach of WSU (and under two different offensive coordinators) the WR1 has been a player who has taken the majority of their snaps at the outside position. Offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle in 2023 with the Cougars featured an outside receiver as WR1, and in 2022 at Western Kentucky featured a slot receiver. If the slot receiver is not a WR1, these coaches’ histories show that the slot ends up as the WR2. Hutson should be healthy for fall camp and brings 33 career game appearances with him. His main competition is returning slot receiver Josh Meredith who played in 12 games last season.
Donovan Ollie (ColSt)
Player Group C
2024 Projected PPG: 12.01
Head coach Jay Norvell is known for high volume passing offenses. The Rams return last season’s top pass catcher Tory Horton, but nobody else in the receiver core with any real starting experience. Since 2018 the WR2 in Norvell’s offense at Colorado State and Nevada have averaged 73 targets for 47 receptions, 639 yards, and 3 TDs. These statistics don’t set the room on fire, but if the WR1 goes down with injury, the WR2’s value rises dramatically. From 2019-2023 Norvell’s WR1 and WR2 in the offense have been outside receivers, meaning an easy transition can happened if the WR1 goes down with injury. Some fantasy analysts are stating that Dylan Goffney should be this season’s WR2 but Goffney plays in the slot. Ollie is a veteran outside receiver transfer who has 41 game appearances from his career at Cincinnati and Washington State. Ollie is a true deep sleeper pick and I wouldn’t recommend taking a shot on him until the final ten rounds of the draft.
Ja'Kobi Lane (USC)
Player Group C
2024 Projected PPG: 10.76
All signs point to Lane having a break-out sophomore season. The former four-star prospect will contend for the top outside receiver position with Duce Robinson. Over the last three seasons head coach Lincoln Riley has featured a slot receiver as the WR1. But if you go back to 2018 Riley has predominately featured an outside receiver as WR1. Even if the recent slot WR1 trend continues, Riley’s WR2 has been an outside receiver every year except 2022. Lane’s current ADP has him being drafted in the 30th round. To get a player with WR1 potential in a Lincoln Riley offense so late in drafts is unheard of. Lane’s current 2024 projection is based on him as the WR2 in the offense.