Return To Burning Questions: Part 2
During the month of February Purple Reign wrote about Burning Questions for each position group. These were questions that needed to be monitored during the spring/summer for answers that will give us a better insight on these players’ situations. These questions did not center around position battles and were more specific in their scope. Let’s review some of these questions that we have a better understanding for now that five months have passed.
You can read the previous articles below:
Joe Arpasi is hosting the “2025 Battle For The Belt” 52-Man League Challenge. The draft for this special event will be broadcast LIVE on the Let Purple Reign: Podcast YouTube channel on Saturday July 19th at 5pm EST. You can watch Joe Arpasi, Eric Froton, Jared Palmgren, and John McKechnie all provide commentary while the draft unfolds.
Louisville – Can Miller Moss break the 300 fantasy points barrier?
If Miller Moss can score 300 fantasy points he will be the first QB to do so under head coach Jeff Brohm. The closest a Brahm QB came to that mark was David Blough in 2018 at Purdue, scoring 295 fantasy points. With no rushing ability to help Moss, he’s going to have to do it all through the air. Miller’s best bet to achieve this will be through a heavy work volume. Louisville has the best 1-2 punch at RB in the ACC and the offense will feature the rushing game more than we’ve seen under Brohm. My projection for Moss came in with a passing workload of 399 attempts for 273.2 fantasy points. Seeing how the running game gives Louisville the best chance to win, I don’t think there’s any way that Moss will reach 300 fantasy points in 2025.
Miami, FL – Is it inevitable that Mario Cristobal signs a big name WR in the spring transfer portal?
Miami was in need of retooling a receiver core that was gutted after the 2024 season. CJ Daniels was signed in the winter transfer portal to go with returning WRs Joshisa Trader, Nathaniel Joseph, and Malachi Toney. With the expensive acquisition of Carson Beck at QB I felt like it was inevitable that Miami would sign another receiver in the spring transfer portal. Since neither Joseph and Toney broke out during spring camp at the slot position Miami signed slot receivers Keelan Marion from BYU and Tony Johnson from Cincinnati. With these portal moves Mario Cristobal has set up a four man competition for the slot WR position when fall camp opens.
Michigan – Is Hogan Hansen a plug-and-play replacement at the TE position?
Hogan Hansen played sparingly as a back-up in 2024 but showed his potential. He has a good build that needs a little more muscle, but he is very athletic and is a good route runner. During spring camp he was unable to separate himself from Marlin Klein who has a narrow edge for the TE1 role. Klein is more of a balanced TE while Hansen is more of a receiver. Its looking like both these guys will see the field and split the TE production. Due to this committee approach it looks inevitable that there’s no way Hansen will be a plug-and-play replacement this year.
Mississippi – Can Austin Simmons break the 140 carries landmark?
One thing we love about head coach Lane Kiffin’s offense is that the QB is heavily involved in the rushing game. Austin Simmons will likely have his struggles throwing the ball in his first year as a starter, so his legs will be a major factor for his fantasy value. Over three seasons Jaxson Dart averaged 123 carries per year. Simmons will likely need more rushing volume to make up for less passing TDs and more INTs than Dart had. The biggest issue here is that Simmons is not the type of dynamic rusher that Dart was. Dart averaged 4.0 yards per carry in 2024 and Simmons has a career average of 2.8 yards per carry. Simmons will also need to convert at least as many third downs as Dart did to have a chance for that big of a rushing workload. In the end I projected Simmons out with 87 carries, which limits his fantasy value.
Mississippi – Should you avoid Mississippi RBs in fantasy drafts?
Head coach Lane Kiffin has an even mixture of workhorse RB1’s and split carry backfields in his history going back to 2018. He brought in Kewan Lacy in the winter transfer portal who ran away from the competition in spring camp. Logan Diggs and Domonique Thomas return this season as support backs. Despite having this amount of rushers Ole Miss signed Damian Taylor in the spring transfer portal window. Taylor will play a major factor in the ground game and all but guarantees this to be an RB1A/RB1B scenario for the fall. When this scenario raises its head there isn’t enough fantasy value to support two RBs which means you will need to avoid this running back.
Missouri – Is Ahmad Hardy capable of receiving 225 carries in 2025?
After an amazing true freshman season at Louisiana-Monroe, Ahmad Hardy transfers to Missouri. Offensive coordinator Kirby Moore has shown that he is willing to showcase a feature RB as he did with Cody Schrader at Missouri in 2023 and Jordan Sims at Fresno State in 2022. Last season was an anomaly, as Missouri brought in two transfers from Group of 5 schools and neither could cut it as a feature back. Hardy earned praise from the coaching staff in spring camp which led the coaches to not sign another RB to contend for carries. This starting job looks firmly in Hardy’s hands which means he is in line for a workhorse amount of carries.
Nebraska – Will the addition of Dana Holgersen turn Dane Key into a breakout fantasy star?
Offensive coordinator Dana Holgersen has a rich history of producing star fantasy WRs. If you remove the 2023 season from his coaching history, his WR1’s average 237 fantasy points and 126 targets. Dane Key transfers in from Kentucky and may be the most talented WR on the roster. Jacory Barney returns and would be his closest competition in the talent department. I actually ran into Holgersen this May at the Flora-Bama bar and pressed him about who will be the WR1 in the offense this fall.
He looked me in the eyes and told me that Key was going to be featured as their WR1. You can’t get a better confirmation source than that folks!
Notre Dame – Can CJ Carr be the next great QB for Mike Denbrock?
Offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock has a knack for making good fantasy QBs. The performance of Jayden Daniels in 2023 was historic. Over the 2024 and 2022-2021 seasons Denbrock’s QB1 averaged 374 fantasy points. CJ Carr spent his freshman year preserving his redshirt and looks like he could win the starting job in 2025. Carr entered spring camp as the QB3 but as camp wore on he steadily moved up the depth chart. His performance in the spring game was head and shoulders better than all the other QBs. It was so good that the man who was running with the first team offense all spring, Steve Angeli; transferred out. But the issue here will be a move away from the heavy QB runs as Carr is not that style of QB. Denbrock’s QBs have averaged 151 carries since 2018 which is too high of an expectation for Carr. I projected Carr to run the ball 72 times, and that lack of rushing potential pushed him down to being ranked the QB104 in my CFF Draft Guide.
Tennessee – Is the 2025 ground game destined to return to a committee approach?
Dylan Sampson is the best RB that head coach Josh Heupel has had going back to 2018. Last season Sampson racked up 258 carries on his way to scoring 305 fantasy points. One thing that fantasy owners must remember is that this is not the norm for Heupel RBs. From 2023-2018 no RB1 has received 160 carries. Only twice during that time frame has one of these backs rushed for 1000 yards or 10+ TDs in a season. There is no star in this backfield which makes it inevitable that we regress back to the historical mean of a split backfield. To reflect this I projected the RB1 to have 152 carries and the RB2 to have 121 carries.
USC – Does Jayden Maiava’s lack of rushing ability hold him back from 350 fantasy points?
Throughout the history of head coach Lincoln Riley only two QBs have not scored 350 fantasy points. In both of those seasons there was change at the QB position during the season. In the years where his QBs did hit that fantasy point total, they all ran for 10+ rushing TDs. Jayden Maiava averaged a paltry 2.3 yards per carry last season but he had a higher TD to rushing attempt usage than the majority of Riley QBs. I projected his rushing TDs at 6 but I will admit I think he could hit eight. Even with two more rushing TDs his fantasy point projection would rise to 342.4 which just misses the 350 fantasy point mark.