During the month of February Purple Reign wrote about Burning Questions for each position group. These were questions that needed to be monitored during the spring/summer for answers that will give us a better insight on these players’ situations. These questions did not center around position battles and were more specific in their scope. Let’s review some of these questions that we have a better understanding for now that five months have passed.
You can read the previous articles below:
Alabama – Will Kalen Deboer’s passing game look more like his days at Washington or like last season?
Alabama QB Jalen Milroe was an elite runner who carried the ball 168 times (320 pass attempts). Before Milroe, head coach Kalen Deboer had an elite passer in Michael Penix, Jr. who threw the ball an average of 555 times (35 carry average) over two seasons at Washington. News from spring camp indicated that the QB run heavy style of play from last season was out the door with the return of offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb. Ty Simpson has taken the advantage in the QB competition during spring camp. During his career he has carried the ball 22 times for 5.9 yards per carry. We can still expect to see QB runs, but at a much lower level. My projection came out with 79 rushing attempts for Simpson, around half the amount of carries that Milroe had last season.
Arizona – Is it possible for Ismail Mahdi to put up Kairee Robinson numbers?
In two seasons at San Jose State, Kairee Robinson averaged 163.5 carries for 973 yards and 14 TDs per season for Arizona head coach Brent Brennan. In 2024 and 2021 his RB1’s averaged 158.5 carries for 750.5 yards and 7.5 TDs. When Ismail Mahdi signed with Arizona during the winter transfer portal CFF analysist figured he would be the favorite to be the RB1 this season. As spring camp played out, there wasn’t very impressive news about Mahdi, but there was another name that was making waves. Kedrick Reescano emerged from spring camp as the favorite for the starting RB job. Unless something unexpected happens during fall camp it appears that Mahdi is lined up to be the RB2 which means he will not put up Kairee Robinson numbers in 2025.
Arizona State – Will Kanye Udoh be overvalued in fantasy drafts?
Last season Cameron Skattebo had an amazing season scoring 404.6 fantasy points. This performance will surely garner lots of attention to the Arizona State RB1 position in fantasy drafts. Just the year prior, Skattebo only scored 187.9 fantasy points, and Darrell Henderson at Memphis in 2018 is the only other RB to score over 200 fantasy points for head coach Kenny Dillingham. Kanye Udoh signed with Arizona State in the winter transfer portal, but sharp eyes knew that last year’s back-up RB Kyson Brown was going to put up a strong fight in spring camp. That is exactly what happened as Brown could be said to have a slight lead for the starting RB1 job. As this news came out during the spring, Udoh’s draft value has been dropping. In March he was being drafted as the #30 RB, but that has dropped to the #59 RB in June. I would say that for a potential RB2, his current ADP is definitely overvalued at this time.
Bowling Green – Can Arlis Boardingham get 85+ targets this season?
Arlis Boardingham has had two okay season at Florida where his best fantasy performance was in 2023 with 66 fantasy points. He now transfers down from the SEC to the Bowling Green where his athletic ability should shine against MAC defenses. Head coach Scot Loeffler had a strong history of TE production but he retired and Eddie George was hired as his replacement. New offensive coordinator Travis Patridge’s TE last season only had 38 targets. While Boardingham’s talent may force Patridge to feature him more in the offense, this 85 target mark looks to be too high for Boardingham to reach in this new offensive system.
Buffalo – Will AL-Jay Henderson be undervalued in fantasy drafts?
In six of the last seven games of the season AL-Jay Henderson scored 20+ fantasy points, and had over 20 carries in his last four games. For the CFF owners who read websites like this or who watch/listen to CFF podcasts, its likely that the buzz behind Henderson will grow this offseason. His ADP value during February saw his being drafted as the #10 RB. This could be seen as a little low but it wouldn’t be considered undervalued. As the months and mock drafts waged on, Henderson’s ADP rose slightly to the #7 RB which is pretty spot on. It looks like the CFF community has been tuned into Henderson’s fantasy value and if you want to draft him you’re going to have to pay an appropriate fantasy draft value.
Cincinnati – Should we expect to see regression in Joe Royer’s targets?
Joe Royer had a fantastic 2024 season receiving 81 targets for the Bearcats. With the top WRs from 2024 gone, some would expect to see his target share increase this season. From a pure talent standpoint I would agree with that. 2024 was the only season that a TE for offensive coordinator Brad Glenn got 35+ targets. From 2023-2019 his TE1 has averaged 33.3 targets. If the career average for Glenn TEs is that much lower you must be concerned about regression, unless that TE’s talent is special. Royer is that type of talent and the receiver core is extremely unexperienced. Since he is the most reliable pass catcher on the team I projected him out with 85 targets for this season, keeping him on pace to avoid regression.
Duke – Where is the right place to take a chance on Darian Mensah in fantasy drafts?
Darian Mensah is a much better passer than Maalik Murphy was so we should see an increase in pass efficiency stats. One major issue from before spring camp is that we had no clue how his WR core will look this fall. There was a steady drumbeat of positive news from spring camp that WR Que’Sean Brown is going to be a playmaker this fall. So while we have news of a good receiver target to go with a talented QB in a pass heavy offense, as of June Mensah is being drafted as the #60 QB in the 24th round. I have Mensah ranked as the #27 QB, showing that he is being massively undervalued. While is ADP will likely rise as the summer continues, I have no problem being aggressive in drafting him above his ADP. I think drafting him by round 20 is a great spot to be targeting Mensah in your fantasy drafts.
Florida State – Will Thomas Castellanos be overvalued in fantasy drafts?
At the time I wrote the original article I expected Thomas Castellanos to be overvalued in fantasy drafts. Only one QB has scored more than 252 fantasy points for offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn since 2018. If you remove KJ Jefferson’s disappointing performance from Malzahn’s history, his QB1’s average just 235 fantasy points. Castellanos has elite rushing skills so he has an opportunity to surpass Malzahn’s 235 fantasy point historical average. For context I ranked Castellanos as my QB39 in my CFF Draft Guide. From February onward he has never been drafted higher than my current ranking. As of the time of writing this article his ADP value in June had him being drafted as the #43 QB. This shows the CFF community has kept realistic expectations for Castellanos while drafting their fantasy teams.
Fresno State – Is the Fresno State running game a fantasy jackpot waiting to happen?
Josh Davis moves up from FCS South Dakota to take over as offensive coordinator. My sample size on his stats is limited to the 2024 season but the stats are amazing for RBs. During 14 games his RB1 scored 298 fantasy points and his RB2 scored 261 fantasy points. Bryson Donelson had a strong finish to the 2024 season but it was unsure how the depth chart might shake out with the new coaching staff. News was regular and glowing over Donelson’s work ethic and play throughout the winter and spring. While the South Dakota RBs featured split production it looks like Donelson will secure a bigger slice of the production pie. Everything appears to be lined up for Donelson to live up to the “fantasy jackpot’ label this fall.
Kansas – Will Daniel Hishaw return from his family leave and participate in spring camp?
Last November Daniel Hishaw stepped away from the team to attend to a personal family matter. I previously stated that unless Hishaw has told the team he is 100% not returning, the odds are that he will be listed on the 2025 spring roster even if his future is still uncertain. As spring camp played out we got the news that Hishaw was back with the team and participating in practices. While he was working with the second team offense in camp, that could be expected as he earns his way back with the team.