Purple Reign takes a look at player prop bets and provides his evaluations on props that have caught his eye. While there is no guarantees in sports betting, Joe Arpasi looks to provide insight on wagers that he believes have a higher chance for success or failure. Please remember to bet responsibly.
BONUS BETS
While premium subscribers get access to all the prop bets that Joe Arpasi has identified, these “bonus bet” suggestions are free for everyone to review.
QB Mark Gronowski (Iowa) 28.5 Rushing Yards
Confidence - Above Average
Bet Suggestion - Over
Gronowski ran the ball 11 times in week one in combination with a patch-work running back core. The Iowa running backs still aren’t fully healthy and He will be needed once again to keep this ground game moving in his first competitive FBS start. Iowa could likely throw the ball more this week too, giving him more opportunities to gain rushing yards on scrambles.
RB Carson Hansen (IaSt) 55.5 Rushing Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Under
The Iowa defense is tough to run the ball against and they will make Hansen have to work hard for every yard. Iowa State tends to limit Hansen’s carries in the second and early third quarters in order to give him fresh legs later in the game. One issue might be that Iowa State will find themselves trailing in the fourth quarter and the game script will take the ball out of Hansen’s hands and into the passing game.
WR De’Zhaun Stribling (Miss) 44.5 Receiving Yards
Confidence - Above Average
Bet Suggestion - Under
Some people may see Stribling’s 3 receptions for 55 yards from week one and question this under bet. While watching this game I noticed that Stribling was getting a good chunk of his five targets in the second half after the starters were out of the game. I have a feeling that he is not considered a main player in this passing attack, but instead is a rotation piece.
MAIN BETS
QB Dante Moore (Oreg) 241.5 Passing Yards
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Over
My gut tells me that Oregon spent week one doing two things. They didn’t put much of their offense on tape, and they were testing to see who could be their main support players behind their main stars. I think this offense is let loose and its stars given the time to shine. I also have a feeling this Oklahoma State team will be playing on their heals all day long.
QB Beau Pribula (Mizzou) 217.5 Passing Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
When it comes to a rivalry game, expect the unexpected. Missouri didn’t need to pass the ball 28 times with Pribula last week, but they will need a more balanced offense this week. I was impressed with his ball placement and accuracy and I think he has what it takes to be a good quarterback in the SEC.
QB Jalen Daniels (Kan) 27.5 Rushing Yards
Confidence - Above Average
Bet Suggestion - Over
One thing that I will go into detail about more later in this article is that I see the Kansas running game struggling this week. I think that Daniels will be called on more with designed runs to help get the ground game clicking. I also think that Daniels may find himself tucking the ball and running on pass plays more in order to move the chains.
QB John Mateer (Okla) 230.5 Passing Yards
Confidence - Average
Bet Suggestion - Over
I think the only way I can say this is that my heart thinks that Oklahoma makes a statement on offense this week (at least through the air). While the Michigan rush defense looked good against New Mexico, they gave up way too many yards in the air for my liking. Oklahoma will have far more weapons to attack this secondary which makes me willing to take the over on this one.
RB Desmond Reid (Pitt) 79.5 Rushing Yards
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Central Michigan put up pretty good rushing stats last week, but that was because they played pass happy San Jose State. Reid has the ability to expose this defense like they’ve never seen. In 2024 Reid ran for 145 or more yards against both MAC schools he played (Kent State and Toledo).
RB Desmond Reid (Pitt) 1.5 Total TDs
Confidence - Above Average
Bet Suggestion - Under
This taking Reid for two total touchdowns is a stretch so don’t put too much money on this one. Reid only had two games where he score multiple TDs in 2024, and they weren’t against those two MAC schools. His ability as a pass catcher helps with him getting two total TDs but in the two MAC games last year he had his lowest receiving output of the season. Yes there’s a chance he could break off a long run to give him a second TD but his history last season shows this is a longshot.
RB Jordan Marshall (Mich) 28.5 Rushing Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Under
Michigan split their carries close to evenly between Marshall and Justice Haynes, but it was clear from the early portion of the game that Haynes was clearly the better back. Marshall averaged a paltry 2.6 yards/carry against New Mexico. Last season Oklahoma was tough defense against the run, making it harder for Marshall to get good holes up front.
RB Daniel Hishaw (Kan) 61.5 Rushing Yards
Confidence - Above Average
Bet Suggestion - Under
I alluded to this earlier, but I think the Kansas rushing attack will struggle this week. Missouri has vastly improved the talent level of their defensive front since they’ve been in the SEC and I don’t think Kansas has the hogs to match-up. I can see Kansas starting the game by trying to work their rushing attack like normal, but not getting many results. The offense will then have to pivot away from Hishaw and start to find alternative ways to “extend” the running game through short screens, designated QB runs, etc.
WR Yamir Knight (SMU) 52.5 Receiving Yards
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Under
There were hopes that Knight could be the WR1 of this offense heading into the fall but last week showed us he’s not the guy. Eight different players had receptions in the game, with half of them getting more than one catch. Knight did pull in three receptions last week for -1 yards. His longest receptions was for four yards.
WR Jayce Brown (K St) 63.5 Receiving Yards
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Brown is a hot hand right now in this Kansas State offense. He has pulled in 78 or more receiving yards in every game this season. Army didn’t look very impressive on defense last week and they don’t have the players that can run with Brown in the their secondary. I would still take the over on this bet if it was for 79.5 yards!
WR Johntay Cook (Syr) 54.5 Receiving Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Cook had 58 yards last week against a quality Tennessee defense. This week the defensive match-up gets much better. Cook was the clear WR1 in the offense, and I see his yards/reception going up this week as well. Syracuse needs to get the passing game working this week so I can see him getting extra targets early in this one.
WR Dakorien Moore (Oreg) 46.5 Receiving Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
I mentioned earlier in this article that I think the Oregon offense is going to be let off the chain this week. Moore’s 3 receptions for 28 yards last week needs to be ignored. I feel like he will surpass those number within the first two drives of the game.