Purple Reign takes a look at player prop bets and provides his evaluations on props that have caught his eye. While there is no guarantees in sports betting, Joe Arpasi looks to provide insight on wagers that he believes have a higher chance for success or failure. Please remember to bet responsibly.
BONUS BETS
While premium subscribers get access to all the prop bets that Joe Arpasi has identified, these “bonus bet” suggestions are free for everyone to review.
QB Cade Klubnick (Clem) - 1.5 Passing TDs
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Over
With an offense that returns all its pieces in the run game and is finding new players in the rushing game, it seems very obvious to me that this is a great Over bet. The LSU defense is susceptible to giving up big plays which increases Klubnick’s chances for hitting 2 passing TDs. I like the Vegas is calling for Clemson to score 30 points which means that Klubnick won’t have to score 50% or more of the teams total points through the air.
WR Malachi Fields (ND) - 39.5 Receiving Yards
Confidence - Above Average
Bet Suggestion - Over
This is a tricky one for two main reasons. We’ve never seen QB CJ Carr throw a pass for the Irish, and we don’t know if Fields will be Carr’s top target. For Carr’s first start the coaches could lean into the running game and simply the playbook for Carr. But I also think that the passing game will need to be complimentary to keep the defense honest. A WR1 or WR2 not hitting 40 yards receiving just seems too low for me to pass up on this bet.
MAIN BETS
QB Blake Shapen (MissSt) - 2.5 Passing TDs
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Over
This game is going to be used to get the passing game up and running for the 2025 season. The coaches know they have a talented backfield but they need to establish who their star WRs are. Vegas is calling for Mississippi State to score 36.5 points which means that we should see Shapen out with the offense when the fourth quarter starts.
QB Carson Beck (MiaFl) - 235.5 Passing Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Of all the QBs I am reviewing in this article, Beck has the worst match-up. Notre Dame’s secondary will challenge Miami’s new receivers throughout the game. Considering this will be a competitive game where Beck plays all the way through & Vegas calls for Miami to score 3 TDs, I have a hard time seeing Beck fall short of this passing yardage.
QB LaNorris Sellers (SCar) - 52.5 Rushing Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
This game should be competitive and force Sellers to stay in the game. Virginia Tech’s defense isn’t what it used to be, but they could still force Sellers to tuck the ball and run on passing plays. There should be enough rushing opportunities in this game for Sellers to use his athletic advantage and push past 52 rushing yards.
RB Caden Durham (LSU) - 17.5 Receiving Yards
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Over
This prop feeling like stealing from a baby. The Clemson defense will look to limit the downfield passing game of LSU. This will force Nussmeier into more check down throws to Durham, and the coaches may likely call more designed RB screens for Durham. Durham is probably the best weapon to force Clemson’s pass defense to be honest and defend the entire field. I wouldn’t be surprised if Durham has 17 receiving yards by the midway point of the second quarter.
RB Jeremiyah Love (ND) - 79.5 Rushing Yards
Confidence - Above Average
Bet Suggestion - Over
Jeremiyah Love is one of the most explosive RBs in college football. I see the Notre Dame centering the offensive gameplan around the running game, and mixing in the passing game to where it is complimentary. Miami has speed on defense but its not hard for Love to bust a 50 yard run at any time. We don’t know how Love’s workload will look like with CJ Carr behind center which is the only reason I’m not high confidence on this prop.
RB Mark Fletcher (MiaFl) - 63.5 Rushing Yards
Confidence - Average
Bet Suggestion - Under
I foresee Jordan Lyle as the the RB for Miami this season. Fletcher is a veteran who will be mixed in heavily with Lyle. I think this Miami offense will match-up better in the air than on the ground with Notre Dame. I see Fletcher’s workload keeping him from reaching 64 rushing yards more than the match-up itself.
WR Germie Bernard (Bama) - 62.5 Receiving Yards
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Under
While Bernard was the WR2 for Alabama last season, I think that was more by default. This season there is more talent in the receiver room and Isaiah Horton looks in-line to be this season’s WR2. I also see Bernard being used in more in the underneath passing game compared to 2024. It is possible for a WR3 to hit 63 receiving yards in this offense, but typically not in a competitive game with a first time starting QB like we have this week.
WR Aaron Anderson (LSU) - 64.5 Receiving Yards
Confidence - Average
Bet Suggestion - Under
I mentioned earlier that I see Clemson’s defense focusing on taking away the deep passing game. This is one thing that can help Anderson with getting more yardage. But I also think the Clemson will be looking for Anderson on every play since he is the returning WR1 from last season. If the secondary is staying back and focusing coverage on Anderson, its more likely that Zavion Thomas could get more yardage than Anderson.
WR Antonio Williams (Clem) - 69.5 Receiving Yards
Confidence - Below Average
Bet Suggestion - Under
My bet suggestion here follows along the same type of thinking I explained for Aaron Anderson. I see LSU’s defense wanting to keep the ball in front of them while focusing on stopping Williams. I can see Williams being force fed at times, but also opening up room in the secondary for TJ More and Bryant Wesco. With so many question marks around who the hot hand will be from week to week in this receiver core I’m recommending the under.