Player Prop Spotlight: Prize Picks Preseason Props
Purple Reign takes a look at player prop bets and provides his evaluations on props that have caught his eye. While there is no guarantees in sports betting, Joe Arpasi looks to provide insight on wagers that he believes have a higher chance for success or failure. Please remember to bet responsibly.
Today Joe Arpasi reviews season long player prop bets that are being offered by Prize Picks.
BONUS BETS
While premium subscribers get access to all the prop bets that Joe Arpasi has identified, these “bonus bet” suggestions are free for everyone to review.
QB Miller Moss (Lou) – 2999.5 passing yards
Confidence – Below Average
2025 Projection – 3392 passing yards
Bet Suggestion – Less
There are a couple of factors that contribute to me suggesting to take the less bet when I have a projection that is 392 yards higher than the prop value. I believe that Moss will win the starting QB job over super talented freshman Deuce Adams. The coaching staff knows that if Adams is the back-up that they will need to keep him happy and avoid him entering the transfer portal in the offseason. I see Adams having packages in the offense for him and he will see time on the field this season, at Moss’ detriment. That will eat into Moss’ yardage total. There’s also a chance that Moss throws too many interceptions and loses his starting job during the season.
RB Nicholas Singleton (PSU) – 849.5 rushing yards
Confidence – Low
2025 Projection – 995 rushing yards
Bet Suggestion – Avoid
Here’s a bet where the difference between the prop amount and my projection is too close for my liking. Penn State already rotates two backs, and the fact that the team will be making a push for the playoffs means we could see Singleton get limited action in blowouts to preserve his health. This focus on the playoffs scenario is my biggest red flag here and the item that makes me want to avoid this bet.
WR Denzel Boston (Wash) – 799.5 receiving yards
Confidence – Low
2025 Projection – 962 receiving yards
Bet Suggestion – More
I’m sure you’re wondering why I have a low confidence rating for a bet where my projection is much higher than the prop amount? Well its because I do have questions about Boston’s role in the offense. On the positive side of things he is the top Dawg in the receiver room. You could expect the passing game to run through him in 2025. But there’s several items of concern on the negative side. To start with he did miss most of the spring with an injury. I believe he’ll be healthy for fall camp but at the time of writing this article there hasn’t been a lot of news about his status. Another factor is how Boston was targeted in 2024 games where QB Demond Williams played extensively. In these three games Boston had 3, 3, and 6 targets. Williams had a tendency to target the slot WR more in those games and the slot was more productive as well. I think you could take the “more” on this bet, but I would make this the smallest bet amount of any I’ve recommended.
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