Purple Reign takes a look at player prop bets and provides his evaluations on props that have caught his eye. While there is no guarantees in sports betting, Joe Arpasi looks to provide insight on wagers that he believes have a higher chance for success or failure. Please remember to bet responsibly.
Today Joe Arpasi reviews season long player prop bets that are being offered by Prize Picks.
BONUS BETS
While premium subscribers get access to all the prop bets that Joe Arpasi has identified, these “bonus bet” suggestions are free for everyone to review.
QB Miller Moss (Lou) – 2999.5 passing yards
Confidence – Below Average
2025 Projection – 3392 passing yards
Bet Suggestion – Less
There are a couple of factors that contribute to me suggesting to take the less bet when I have a projection that is 392 yards higher than the prop value. I believe that Moss will win the starting QB job over super talented freshman Deuce Adams. The coaching staff knows that if Adams is the back-up that they will need to keep him happy and avoid him entering the transfer portal in the offseason. I see Adams having packages in the offense for him and he will see time on the field this season, at Moss’ detriment. That will eat into Moss’ yardage total. There’s also a chance that Moss throws too many interceptions and loses his starting job during the season.
RB Nicholas Singleton (PSU) – 849.5 rushing yards
Confidence – Low
2025 Projection – 995 rushing yards
Bet Suggestion – Avoid
Here’s a bet where the difference between the prop amount and my projection is too close for my liking. Penn State already rotates two backs, and the fact that the team will be making a push for the playoffs means we could see Singleton get limited action in blowouts to preserve his health. This focus on the playoffs scenario is my biggest red flag here and the item that makes me want to avoid this bet.
WR Denzel Boston (Wash) – 799.5 receiving yards
Confidence – Low
2025 Projection – 962 receiving yards
Bet Suggestion – More
I’m sure you’re wondering why I have a low confidence rating for a bet where my projection is much higher than the prop amount? Well its because I do have questions about Boston’s role in the offense. On the positive side of things he is the top Dawg in the receiver room. You could expect the passing game to run through him in 2025. But there’s several items of concern on the negative side. To start with he did miss most of the spring with an injury. I believe he’ll be healthy for fall camp but at the time of writing this article there hasn’t been a lot of news about his status. Another factor is how Boston was targeted in 2024 games where QB Demond Williams played extensively. In these three games Boston had 3, 3, and 6 targets. Williams had a tendency to target the slot WR more in those games and the slot was more productive as well. I think you could take the “more” on this bet, but I would make this the smallest bet amount of any I’ve recommended.
MAIN BETS
QB Sam Leavitt (AzSt) – 2599.5 passing yards
Confidence – High
2025 Projection – 3119 passing yards
Bet Suggestion – More
This is a case of the prop value being way lower than my projection. Leavitt threw for 2885 passing yards in 13 games last season. He returns along side star WR Jordyn Tyson this year, but loses RB Cameron Skattebo. I believe the loss of Skattebo’s production on the ground will have the Sun Devils throwing the ball more than last season.
QB Cade Klubnik (Clem) – 28.5 passing TDs
Confidence – Above Average
2025 Projection – 35 passing TDs
Bet Suggestion – More
I’m bullish on Klubnik’s TD count for this season. First off I see the coaching staff looking to highlight Klubnik to help aid his Heisman trophy campaign. There will likely be many situations where the coaches would have handed the ball off in the red zone in the past but this season they will allow him to throw the ball instead. I also like the talented receiver core that Clemson has. Klubnik will be able to find one-on-one match-ups across the defense and take advantage of them.
QB DJ Lagway (Fla) – 2499.5 passing yards
Confidence – Very High
2025 Projection – 3698 passing yards
Bet Suggestion – More
This prop looks to me like Underdog didn’t take into account that Lagway was not the starter for all of last season. I will admit that my passing yardage projection is ambitious but there is so much room between the prop value and the projection that I feel great about taking the more bet here.
QB LaNorris Sellers (SCar) – 2549.5 passing yards, 19.5 passing TDs
Confidence – Moderate
2025 Projection – 3054 passing yards, 24 passing TDs
Bet Suggestion – More
I like the large sized gap between my projections and the prop values here. The reason my confidence level isn’t higher is due to the change at the offensive coordinator position. We don’t have a rich history of stats to base projections off of OC Mike Shula. This means there’s a higher chance that my projections can be off to some degree. But I do like investing in Sellers’ talent to help ensure he surpasses these numbers.
QB Diego Pavia (Vand) – 2124.5 passing yards
Confidence – Moderate
2025 Projection – 2489 passing yards
Bet Suggestion – More
This bet is very close to Pavia’s passing yardage total from last season. Not only does Pavia return for his second season at Vanderbilt, but he also returns last season’s top WR Junior Sherrill and top TE Eli Stowers. There’s always injury risk with rushing QBs like Pavia, but I still like this bet even if Pavia comes up short of my projection.
RB Isaac Brown (Lou) – 974.5 rushing yards
Confidence – Moderate
2025 Projection – 1167 rushing yards
Bet Suggestion – More
Its hard being accurate when projecting a player who did not start the entire previous season. It also becomes difficult to make an accurate projection when there’s a talented back-up that will see decent playing time. That’s what we have with Brown’s situation for 2025. I think the Louisville offense will lean on the run more than it ever has because of the talent level of their top two backs. I also think Brown is likely to outperform this prop. I’m still being cautious with my confidence level even though I’m recommending taking the “more” on this one.
RB Darius Taylor (MIN) – 934.5 rushing yards
Confidence – Moderate
2025 Projection – 1152 rushing yards
Bet Suggestion – More
When comparing the prop yardage amount to my projections there a difference of 217.5 yards. I’d like a bigger yardage gap here which is why my confidence level is moderate. The Minnesota offense has been reliable with feeding their top back the football. The offense is also breaking in a new QB which means the play calling should lean on the rushing game a little more this season. I’m willing to take the more on this bet, but I would make my wager smaller than the amount I place on high confidence bets.
RB Jeremiyah Love (ND) – 1099.5 rushing yards
Confidence – Low
2025 Projection – 1080 rushing yards
Bet Suggestion – Avoid
I’m not a fan of this prop since the yardage is too close for comfort. With CJ Carr taking over under center we will likely see a change in the way the rushing game works. Carr is not the rushing QB we’ve seen from this offense in the past, which means he will get less carries. This should open up Love to receive a higher carry volume, which I have baked into my projection. Love had 163 carries in 16 games last year, and my projection calls for him receiving 156 carries in 12 games. With an uncertain change in carry distribution I’m recommending you avoid this prop bet.
RB Jonah Coleman (Wash) – 874.5 rushing yards
Confidence – Low
2025 Projection – 982 rushing yards
Bet Suggestion – Avoid
There are too many unknown variables with the Washington rushing game for me to like this bet. QB Demond Williams will eat into the rushing workload of Coleman, but we have no clue how much. Last season Coleman only had six games with more than 15 carries. I don’t see him having more 15+ carry games with Williams in the backfield this year. On the flip side, Coleman’s yards per carry should increase now that there’s a rushing QB threat. So while I have Coleman’s carries dropping from 184 in 2024 (not counting bowl game) to 164 this season, his efficiency stats could get him to hit this yardage prop. With all this uncertainty I’m staying away from this prop.
WR Cam Coleman (Aub) – 774.5 receiving yards
Confidence – Very High
2025 Projection – 1191 receiving yards
Bet Suggestion – More
This prop could look scary if you’re just looking at Colemans season total stats from last season. Coleman had 598 receiving yards in 2024. If you dig into the numbers you’ll see this is deceiving. To start with, Coleman only played in 11 games. If we take his 54.3 average yards per game and add it to his 2024 total to give him a 12 game yardage amount, it would come out to 652 receiving yards. The coaching staff didn’t lean into Coleman until the end of the season. When you take all games with more than 5 targets you get an average of 88.2 yards per game. Extrapolate that over a 12 game season and you get 1058 receiving yards. I see Coleman’s efficiency stats improving this season making this a very easy more bet to take.
WR Jeremiah Smith (OSU) – 1174.5 receiving yards, 11.5 receiving TDs
Confidence – High
2025 Projection – 1476 receiving yards, 16 receiving TDs
Bet Suggestion – More
I do have to point out that Ohio State is breaking in a new QB this season which does add some caution here. I’m still a big fan of Smith shattering these numbers due to his talent and the obvious fact that the coaching staff will feature him heavily. Smith had seven games last season where he saw less than 7 targets, but he still managed to score a TD in five of those seven games. I can see the offense leaning on Smith in difficult match-ups this season, daring defenses to stop him. While my confidence is high on this prop, I’d still bet a little less than I normally would for a high confidence prop.
WR Deion Burks (Okla) – 724.5 receiving yards
Confidence – Very High
2025 Projection – 1045 receiving yards
Bet Suggestion – More
I love taking the “more” on this bet because I’m willing to bet on the offensive system of Oklahoma. This offense feeds the ball to its WR1, averaging 1138 receiving yards over the last three seasons. In fact, the WR2 in this offense has exceeded this yardage amount twice in the last three seasons. There’s too much proven historical production and workload volume for Burks to not make this prop total as long as he stays healthy. That is a legitimate concern, but one I’m willing to “bet” on. Don’t let yourself overthink this one and take the “more”
WR Kevin Concepcion (TxAM) – 649.5 receiving yards
Confidence – Very High
2025 Projection – 571 receiving yards
Bet Suggestion – Less
Concepcion made a name for himself in 2023 by hauling in 71 receptions for 839 yards. His stats dropped significantly in 2024 to 53 receptions for 460 yards. What we all saw was that Concepcion benefited from schemed “gadget plays” in 2023. Without those “gadget plays” in 2024 his production plummeted. He transferred to Texas A&M this year, so lets review how their WRs performed in 2024. The WR1 had 574 receiving yards and the WR2 had 381 yards. While I see the passing production improving this season, I don’t see Concepcion being the WR1 in the offense because this offensice system favors an outside receiver as its WR1. I’ve been avoiding Concepcion in all my fantasy drafts but I won’t avoid the “less” prop bet here.