CFF Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em – Week 8
In a College Fantasy Football move that will go down in history as nothing short of monumental, Volume Pigs and Purple Reign have combined their CFF “mega powers” to form an unstoppable team.
Each week this heavyweight duo will outline College Fantasy Football players to start and sit at each position, and answer questions from our readers.
QUARTERBACKS: Start ‘Em
Purple Reign
Spencer Petras (UtSt) vs New Mexico
Since taking over the starting QB job Petras has the Utah State offense clicking. The Aggie pass offense now ranks #31 in fantasy points scored and they face a New Mexico pass defense that ranks #123 in fantasy points allowed and gives up 2.33 passing TDs/game. Petras’ time under center has risen the offense’s red zone TD rate to 55% and New Mexico gives up touchdowns 80% of the time offenses reach the red zone. I’m not the only one who loves this match-up, as Vegas is calling for Utah State to score 38 points in this game.
Kevin Jennings (SMU) at Stanford
Jennings is coming off a bye week, and before that he put up 25 and 31 fantasy points against Florida State and Louisville. Next up on the schedule is Stanford who has a pass defense ranked #126 in fantasy points allowed and gives up 2.33 passing TDs/game. These teams match-up pretty evenly on third down conversions but SMU has the advantage in red zone touchdowns. SMU is scoring a touchdown in the red zone 65.4% of the time while Stanford is giving up red zone touchdowns 70.8% of the time. Playing at Stanford can be tough for teams but I see Jennings putting in a good fantasy performance on the road this week.
To continue reading this article, sign up for a FREE 7-day premium subscription today! Premium subscribers get year-round full access to everything that Let Purple Reign has to offer.
Volume Pigs
Parker Navarro (Ohio) vs. MiaOH
Miami of Ohio is currently giving up the 96th most rushing yards against per game in the FBS and Navarro is coming off back to back 100 yard rushing performances and is on a four game rushing score streak.
Tommy Ulatowski (Kent St.) vs. BGSU
This game has an O/U of 55 currently with BGSU favoured by 20 points. To me, this one feels like a classic MACtion chaos game and there are a lot of CFF assets involved in this one via BSGU’s TE and Kent State’s WRs. Lost in the madness is Tommy Touchdown and his back to back weeks of 27+ points. BGSU is middle of the pack in terms of PPG allowed, but they have been strong vs. the pass so far which worries me slightly for Ulatowski.
QUARTERBACKS: Sit ‘Em
Purple Reign
Tucker Gleason (Toled) at Northern Illinois
Gleason left last week’s game with an undisclosed injury and its questionable if he will play this week. If he does play its very possible he won’t be 100% healthy heading into this tough match-up. Toledo’s pass offense ranks #17 in fantasy points scored but Northern Illinois’ pass defense ranks #20 in fantasy points allowed. Its tough to score on NIU as they give up 1 passing TD/game and have a red zone touchdown allowed rate of 41.7%. They are especially stingy on third down, only allowing opposing offenses to convert 20.5% of the time. This is why Vegas is calling for Toledo to only score 20 points this week.
Alan Bowman (OkSt) at BYU
Bowman has hit a rough patch the last three games, failing to score 19 fantasy points in any of those contests. In his last game against West Virginia he was benched after throwing 2 INTs (his third straight game with 2 INTs). Oklahoma State is coming off a bye week and we don’t know if Bowman will be back at the helm of the offense. Even if he plays, BYU’s pass defense ranks #6 in fantasy points scored and gives up just 0.67 passing TDs/game. Avoid Bowman and this match-up like the plague.
Volume Pigs
Dillon Gabriel (OREG) vs. PUR
I was burned on Gabriel last week so why not try again, right? Gabriel had one of his best games of the season vs. the Buckeyes last Saturday proving that the Ducks have been probably been holding things back vs. lesser competition (a lesson Lanning learned from his former boss, Kirby, no doubt). Well, this week the Ducks get another inferior opponent and we’ve seen so far this year that when Oregon is playing an inferior opponent, Gabriel has scored less than 24 points four times out of five games, with the sole exception being the in-state rival Oregon State Beavers. This one feels like it could be a blowout with Gabriel getting the hook early.
RUNNING BACKS: Start ‘Em
Purple Reign
Sedrick Alexander (Vand) vs Ball State
This is the week the Alexander train getting rolling again. A good rule of thumb this season is to play any fantasy players who are going up against Ball State’s defense. Vegas knows this and is calling for Vandy to score 42 points. Ball State’s rush defense ranks #116 in fantasy points allowed. They give up 5.9 yards/carry and 2.33 rushing TDs/game. If you reach the red zone you’re pretty much guaranteed to score a TD as Ball State is giving up a touchdown 82.6% of the time opposing offenses reach the red zone. Alexander probably won’t play the whole game so we’ll have to look for him to score those fantasy points early in this one.
Rahsul Faison (UtSt) vs New Mexico
Did I mention earlier in this article that the New Mexico defense is bad? Good! Faison is now the primary back for a Utah State rush offense that is only ranked #86 in fantasy points scored. The good news is that New Mexico is terrible against the run with their rush defense ranking #131 in fantasy points allowed. They are giving up 3.17 rushing TDs/game and 6.3 yards/carry. This game has shootout written all over it so expect the Utah State offense to create balance with the running game to keep the New Mexico offense off the field.
Volume Pigs
Isaac Brown (LOU) vs. Miami
This game is a homecoming of sorts for the freaky freshman out of Miami. The game is in Louisville, but I’m guessing Brown will be extra fired up to play against his hometown school and likely many of his former high school opponents/teammates. More importantly, Brown has ascended in recent weeks on the Louisville depth chart and is coming off a 20 carry performance vs. UVA. I can’t trust anything with Miami’s numbers right now because the competition has been so poor. They should get a good test this weekend with what is likely their toughest opponent of their regular season schedule.
LJ Martin (BYU) vs. OKST
Have you heard? LJ Martin is back. In his first appearance after his injury in week two, Martin scored on the ground and via the air. Unfortunately, he is not the undisputed bellcow in the backfield (yet), but he’s involved enough to warrant a start. This game has an O/U of 53.5 with BYU favoured by 9.5, which means there should be plenty of scoring opportunities for the Cougars.
RUNNING BACKS: Sit ‘Em
Purple Reign
Cameron Skattebo (AzSt) at Cincinnati
Skattebo has been a fantasy monster this year averaging 28.3 fantasy points/game. I think he could have a decent 15 fantasy point game this week, but Cincinnati will keep him well below his average. The Cincinnati rush defense ranks #26 in fantasy points allowed and they will have the home field advantage on their side this week. The Bearcats give up just 0.33 rushing TDs/game and give up touchdowns in the red zone only 35.3% of the time. Skattebo should still put up good yardage stats as Cincinnati gives up 4.95 yards/carry.
Bhayshul Tuten (VaTec) vs Boston College
Tuten has been the main bright spot of a Virginia Tech offense that seems like it has under achieved this season. This game will feature the strength of Boston College defense going up against the strength of the Hokie offense. Virginia Tech’s rush offense ranks #35 in fantasy points scored and BC’s rush defense ranks #7 in fantasy points allowed. BC only has a 25% red zone touchdowns allowed rate and gives up 0.33 rushing TDs/game. The Virginia Tech passing offense has struggled this year and they will have their hands full on third downs as BC only allows opposing offense to convert those 36.5% of the time.
Volume Pigs
Jalen White (GaSo) vs. JMU
I’m out on White for the foreseeable future until we see some consistent volume for him in that backfield. This week’s matchup is a strong defence as well.
Damien Martinez (Mia) vs. LOU
Martinez is another runner who’s touches fluctuate and this week’s matchup is against a Louisville team that is only giving up 19 PPG so far.
WIDE RECEIVERS: Start ‘Em
Purple Reign
Luke Wysong (NM) vs Utah State
Wysong’s target share has dropped over the last two weeks, averaging 8 targets/game instead of the 13.7 targets/game he had before that. I think the trend is going to stop this week as Utah State will put up points and force this game into back-and-forth action. Utah State’s pass defense ranks #130 in fantasy points allowed, gives up 2.67 passing TDs/game, and gives up red zone touchdowns 71% of the time. Vegas is calling for New Mexico to score 40 points in this shootout, and if we’re lucky we might get some overtime action!
Skyler Bell (UConn) vs Wake Forest
Bell limped off the field in the Week 4 game with Florida Atlantic and has been playing hurt since. Last week he was able to rest during the bye week and reports show he should play this week and be back to full health. This week’s game looks to be the perfect environment for Bell to get back to scoring fantasy points. UConn’s pass offense ranks #45 in fantasy points scored and Wake Forest’s pass defense is ranked #131 in fantasy points allowed. The Demon Deacons are giving up red zone touchdowns 60.9% of the time and giving up 2.33 passing TDs/game. UConn will be playing from behind which means Bell should get plenty of targets, and Vegas thinks UConn can score 30 points so there will be scoring opportunities for Bell as well.
Volume Pigs
Ted Hurst (GaSt) vs. Marshall
Hurst has proven to be the go-to guy in the Panthers’ passing attack with five scores in his last four games. He’s averaging over 10 targets per contest in the same time span and he gets a fledgling Marshall team this week who haven’t even figured out who their QB will be.
Trent Walker (ORST) vs. UNLV
UNLV has one of the worst pass defences in the country right now and Walker’s target volume has been very strong the last five weeks.
WIDE RECEIVERS: Sit ‘Em
Purple Reign
Ja’Corey Brooks (Lou) vs Miami, FL
Brooks is the big time play maker in the Louisville passing game but he has a tall task ahead of him this week. While the Louisville pass offense ranks #19 in fantasy points scored, the Miami pass defense ranks #15 in fantasy points allowed. Its tough to score on Miami as they only give up red zone touchdowns 46.1% of the time, and only allow 0.83 passing TDs/game. I think third down conversions will be interesting in this match-up as Miami has an advantage in that area. Brooks could still have an okay day as Vegas is calling for Louisville to score 28 points.
Luke Floriea (Kent) at Bowling Green
Floriea was a darling on the waiver wire this week after getting 11 targets for 6 receptions, 130 yards and 1 TD last week against Ball State. This week the competition gets much harder with a Bowling Green pass defense that ranks #57 in fantasy points allowed. BG does give up 1.33 passing TDs/game but they are tough in the red zone, only allowing touchdowns 36.8% of the time. Third downs will play a big factor in this game. Bowling Green only allows third down conversions 33.3% of the time but the Kent State offense is worse, only converting 21% of their third downs. Vegas agrees with me about this not being a favorable match-up as they are predicting that Kent State will only score 17 points.
Volume Pigs
Jordan Moore (Duke) vs. FSU
Not only is Moore dropping a lot of passes this year, other players around him are stepping up and offloading some of his targets. After starting the year with three straight double digit target games, he has a total of 18 in his last three games (average of six per appearance).
TIGHT ENDS: Start ‘Em
Purple Reign
Terrance Carter (ULLaf) at Coastal Carolina
Terrance Carter has been “strokin” the last two weeks with a total of 12 targets for 10 receptions, 171 yards and 1 TD. He is the top fantasy passing target in this offense and he faces a Coastal Carolina defense that gives up 2 passing TDs/game. The Coastal pass defense ranks #99 in fantasy points scored and gives up red zone touchdowns 71.4% of the time. With Vegas calling for Louisiana to score 30 points it looks like Terrance Carter will keep “strokin” to the East, and “strokin” to the West.
Volume Pigs
Eli Stowers (Vandy) vs. Ball St.
Stowers had a down game last week but this weekend they get an overmatched Ball State team that may be just dangerous enough for the Commodores to keep the starter in all four quarters. Ball St. is currently rated 132nd vs. opposing TEs on Fantrax.
TIGHT ENDS: Sit ‘Em
Purple Reign
Dylan Wade (MD) vs USC
From the outside looking in this game appears to be a favorable match-up for Wade. You would expect these two offense to exchange scores and for Maryland to feed the ball around to its pass catchers. One big issue is the USC pass defense which ranks #25 in fantasy points allowed. USC gives up 0.83 passing TDs/game, but they are allowing a moderate 52.6% of red zone touchdowns to opponents. I think the match-up that Maryland will look to exploit is the USC run defense which ranks #84 in fantasy points allowed.
READER SUBMISSIONS
Andrew Bracht
TE pick 1, 2 PPR: Kuithe (Utah) vs TCU or Maryland (SMU) @ Stanford?
DST pick 1: Army vs ECU or Wisconsin vs Northwestern?
Purple Reign: TE: With the news that Rising is done for the season, my view is that Kuithe’s fantasy value has dropped. He has the worse match-up this week as TCU’s pass defense ranks #47 in fantasy points allowed and gives up 1.5 passing TDs/game. Compare that to the Stanford pass defense which ranks #126 in fantasy points scored and 2.33 passing TDs allowed/game. I’ll take Maryland all day here. DEF: Vegas is calling for ECU to score 18 points and Northwestern to score 17 points so we need to look for a different edge here. Army plays at home which I like, they are better at giving up red zone TDs, but Wisconsin is better at third down conversions. Both defenses are tied for amount of pass TDs allowed/game, but Army has the edge on rushing TDs allowed/game. I’ll take Army but these are close.
Volume Pigs: I’m going with Kuithe who’s been consistently solid throughout the year, and TCU is not a defence that scares me. Cam Rising is out for Utah, but a new QB often times means even more targets for the TE. Maryland has looked good the last two weeks, but he’s harder to trust with a smaller sample size of good performances so far. I don’t have a clear preference either way on the DSTs, sorry!
READER SUBMISSIONS
BJ Pivonka
QB pick 2, 4pt Pass TD: John Mateer (WaSt) vs Haw, Riley Leonard (ND) vs Ga Tec, Hayne King (GaTec ) vs Notre Dame, or Anthony Colandrea (UVA) vs Clemson?
FLEX pick 2, 0.5 PPR for WR only: WR Stribling (OkSt) vs BYU, WR Burks (Okla) vs South Carolina, WR Rutherford (GaTec) vs Notre Dame, or RB Griffin (OreSt) vs UNLV?
Purple Reign: QB: I’m not a fan of King this week. The ND defense gives up the least amount of rushing and passing TDs/game of this group. You can also scratch Colandrea off the list as Vegas thinks Virginia will only score 18 points. So that quickly narrows it down to the two you need with Mateer and Leonard. FLEX: I’ll be honest I’m not a fan of these choices and I’d recommend grabbing someone from my waiver wire article that has a good match-up this week. Griffin is hurt so you can eliminate him. All of the remaining pass defenses rank in the top 20 for fantasy points allowed, give up less than 1 passing TD/game, and two of the three give up red zone touchdowns less than 50% of the time. Since the Oklahoma State QB situation is a mess right now I would say eliminate Stribling and roll with Burks and Rutherford. Neither of these two will do very much though.
Volume Pigs: Given that it is four point passing, I’m looking at who has the upside on the ground. Leonard’s been good in that department recently, although last week it was actually his arm that got it done. His improvement as a passer is good news in my mind, and I like the matchup vs. GT, especially if Haynes King is out. On the other, I’m rolling with Mateer as he’s shown that his upside is too good to sit. They get a good matchup vs. Hawaii also.
I don’t think Burks is at full health so he’s out, same deal with Griffen. By elimination that leaves Stribling and Rutherford for me.
READER SUBMISSIONS
Dane Miller
QB pick 1 to start & 1 to drop, 6pt Pass TD: Josh Hoover (TCU) vs Utah, Brendan Sorsby (Cin) vs Arizona State, or Kevin Jennings (SMU) vs Stanford?
Purple Reign: I’ll start with the drop part of the question. I looked at the remaining schedule for how many games each player will have against a pass defense ranked #65 or worse. Jennings has 3 games while Hoover and Sorsby have 4. If it looks like your team is a lock for the playoffs you need to keep Hoover since he has the best schedule for the end of the season. If you need to fight your way into the playoffs then Sorsby gives you the best match-ups leading up to the playoffs. By default I would say drop Jennings then. Now that we’re down to two guys, I would start Sorsby over Hoover this week. Looking at the rest of the season with these two: Hoover in Weeks 9-10, Sorsby in Week 11, find a spot starter for Week 12, Week 13 is even between the two, and Week 14 is Hoover.
Volume Pigs: I think I’d start Sorsby vs. AZST because Hoover keeps turning the ball over lately and Jennings hasn’t been as productive as Sorsby has this year. I guess that means cut Jennings.
READER SUBMISSIONS
Trevor Swoopes
RB pick 2, standard scoring: RJ Harvey (UCF), Corey Kiner (Cin), Jaden Nixon (WestMi), or Raheim Sanders (SCar)?
Purple Reign: Kiner is my least favorite of this group. Both Harvey and Sanders have tough match-ups, but Nixon is now splitting carries. I’d say take the risk on Nixon since he has a favorable match-up. As for the last spot I would say Harvey as he has the edge over Sanders in higher ranking rush offense, defensive yards/carry allowed, defensive red zone TDs allowed, and defensive third down conversions allowed.
Volume Pigs: The WMU backfield is trending closer to an even split with Buckley back and Sanders plays a stout OU defence this week. By elimination, Kiner and Harvey are my picks.