CFF Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em – Week 7
In a College Fantasy Football move that will go down in history as nothing short of monumental, Volume Pigs and Purple Reign have combined their CFF “mega powers” to form an unstoppable team.
Each week this heavyweight duo will outline College Fantasy Football players to start and sit at each position, and answer questions submitted from our readers.
QUARTERBACKS: Start ‘Em
Purple Reign
Brendan Sorsby (Cin) at UCF
Sorsby had a bounce-back game last week against Texas Tech throwing the ball 45 times for 426 yards and 4 TDs. There are several things that go in his favor with this week’s match-up against UCF. The Black Knights rank #19 in rush defense for fantasy points allowed which will make it difficult for the Cincinnati ground game to be productive. With Cincinnati’s #18 ranked pass offense in fantasy points scored being the focal point of the game plan they will match-up against a pass defense that ranks #103 in fantasy points allowed. Cincinnati scores TDs in the red zone 54.5% of the time but the UCF defense gives up red zone TDs at a 66.7% rate which benefits the Bearcats.
Emmett Brown (SJSU) at Colorado State
After two games where Brown scored over 30 fantasy points, he came back down to Earth last week against Nevada. That doesn’t shake my confidence in how he will fair against a Colorado State pass defense that ranks #112 in fantasy points allowed. The San Jose State passing game ranks #4 in fantasy points scored and they will take advantage of the fact that Colorado State gives up TDs at a 92.8% rate when offenses reach the red zone. For all the QBs I ranked in my top 50 this week, Brown faces a pass defense that gives up the second most passing TDs/game. Brown has a chance to exceed my #6 QB rank for the week.
Volume Pigs
Kadin Semonza (Ball St.) vs. Kent St.
While Semonza isn’t a rusher, he has scored three or more passing TDs in three of his five games this season. Removing the blowout vs. Miami from the equation, and he’s averaging over 20 PPG in four point passing TD formats. The matchup this week is fantastic with a weak Kent State next up on the docket. Of note, in every game besides the Miami game Semonza has attempted at least 34 passes, and has hit 40 twice.
Riley Leonard (ND) vs. Stanford
People may have forgotten about old Leonard after a slow start to the year, but he now has six rushing TDs in his last three games. It seems he’s starting to hit his stride now in this new offensive system, which is OC’d by the same OC who oversaw Jayden Daniels at LSU last year, and now ND gets a Stanford defence that ranks 118th against QBs in CFF this year according to Fantrax. What’s important to note here is this game is going to be a strength of strength matchup, as the Cardinal are 11th in the FBS vs. the run, but 122nd vs. the pass so far. That tracks as we’ve seen the likes of Josh Hoover and Cade Klubnik torch this secondary. Leonard threw his first passing TD of the season in week four vs. Miami of Ohio, but then followed it up with another two scores against Louisville, which gives me some confidence that this could be a trend up situation for him and that passing attack. Beyond that, I don’t know that I trust Stanford to actually bottle up Leonard’s ground game, despite what the stats say.
QUARTERBACKS: Sit ‘Em
Purple Reign
Garrett Nussmeier (LSU) vs Mississippi
Nussmeier has thrown the ball 37+ times in every game this season, has thrown for over 300 yards in 4 of his five games, and helms the #7 ranked pass offense for fantasy points scored. Vegas has LSU scoring 30 points in this match-up but I have a hard time buying that. The Ole Miss defense is legit. That defense is holding opposing offense to a 23.9% third down conversation rate, they give up TDs when the offense is in the red zone at a 21.4% rate, and they only give up 0.33 passing TDs/game. This is not the profile of a defense that will allow a fantasy QB to have success.
Miller Moss (USC) vs Penn State
Moss has faired well against Big Ten defenses so far this season. Penn State will be the toughest defense USC has faced all year and Vegas sees them being successful, holding USC to 21 points in their lines. The Penn State pass defense ranks #11 in fantasy points allowed, only gives up 0.8 passing TDs/game, and hold opposing offenses to a 33.3% third down conversion rate. The USC passing game matches-up better to Penn State than the running game, so Miller will be forcing throws into this stingy defense. Don’t be surprised if Moss throws 2-3 INTs in this one.
Volume Pigs
Garrett Greene (WVU) vs. ISU
Greene has been so up and down this season that it is just hard to trust him right now period. Then you throw in the tough matchup vs. ISU’s defence, who rank 6th in the FBS in points against, and I find myself looking elsewhere for a start this week.
Dillon Gabriel (OREG) vs. OSU
Similar reasoning to the above, it is hard to trust Gabriel right now and the defence he faces this week makes it hard to stomach starting him.
RUNNING BACKS: Start ‘Em
Purple Reign
Jalen White (GaSo) vs Marshall
White was red-hot last week, carrying the ball 22 times for 114 yards and 2 TDs. In two of his last three games he has received double digit carries and scored 2 TDs/game. White looks like he’ll keep this streak up against a Marshall run defense that ranks #112 in fantasy points scored. Marshall also allows 4.5 yards/carry and 2.2 rushing TDs/game. What makes White even more enticing is that Marshall gives up TDs in the red zone 84.6% of the time.
Braedon Sloan (Ball) at Kent State
Sloan has been hot and cold this season bouncing between fantasy performances of 20+ fantasy points one week then scoring under 10 fantasy points the next week. This game will have no defense played and I see Sloan getting his first back-to-back good fantasy performance. Vegas expects Ball State to score 32 points and a big part of that is their ability to score TDs in the red zone 81.8% of the time. Kent State’s rush defense is #134 in fantasy points allowed, they allows opposing offenses to convert on third down 50% of the time, and gives up 6.2 yards/carry and 3.6 rushing TDs/game.
Volume Pigs
Jaden Nixon (WMU) vs. Akron
Nixon has been absolutely on fire since getting his shot to lead the backfield in week three. I assumed Buckley’s absence was the catalyst for his influx of volume, but even with Buckley returning last week, Nixon still led the way. Buckley probably isn’t fully healthy, even though he came back last week. I’d expect over time the split will even out, but at least in the short term, it feels like a good idea to ride Nixon vs. Akron’s weak rush defence this week.
Ahmad Hardy (ULM) vs. SMiss
Hardy, the true freshman, continues to lead the Warhawks backfield in terms of touches and is coming off 28 and 14 carries in his last two outings. Bryant Vincent, his head coach, is famous within the CFF community for being a RB kingmaker (see DeWayne McBride at UAB, Jacorey Merritt at New Mexico), and they play a SMiss team that ranks 122nd in the FBS vs. the run.
RUNNING BACKS: Sit ‘Em
Purple Reign
Quali Conley (Ariz) at BYU
Conley is coming off a 26 fantasy point performance against Tech Texas but I think you need to sit this hot hand this week. Vegas is calling for a low 22 point total for Arizona in this game. BYU will make it hard for Arizona to sustain drives as they’re holding opponents to a 33.3% conversion rate on third downs. Arizona’s rush offense is #85 in fantasy points scored but BYU’s rush defense ranks #41 in fantasy points allowed, and only gives up 1 rushing TD/game. Its going to be hard for Conley to be very productive on his typical 14 carries against this rush defense.
Sedrick Alexander (Vand) at Kentucky
Vandy is the darling of CFB right now and Alexander had a productive day against Alabama last week scoring 22 fantasy points. Bama’s rush defense ranks #45 for fantasy points allowed, but Alexander will have to face a Kentucky rush defense that is ranked #18 and only gives up 0.8 rushing TDs/game. Kentucky is also stout in the red zone, allowing opposing offenses to score TDs only 38.5% of the time. Add on top of all that the fact Vegas predicts Vandy to only score 16 points and I have a hard time seeing Alexander scoring 15 fantasy points.
Volume Pigs
Jonah Coleman (UW) vs. Iowa
I’ve learnt my lesson trying to get too cute starting Darius Taylor vs. Iowa a few weeks ago, so now let me repent for mistake by sitting Coleman, who’s the RB of the UW Huskies playing against Iowa this week. Don’t overthink it: do not start RBs vs. Iowa, who rank 15th in the FBS vs. the run.
WIDE RECEIVERS: Start ‘Em
Purple Reign
Chrishon McCray (Kent) vs Ball State
Ball State is just awful on defense and they provide the Kent State passing game a ripe match-up for fantasy point production. McCray is averaging 11.3 targets/game and 1.3 TDs/game if you remove the Tennessee and Penn State contests. Ball State’s pass defense is near the bottom, ranked #131 for fantasy points allowed. They also give up 3.6 passing TDs/game and opponents score TDs in the red zone at a 80.9% rate. McCray has a strong chance to log back-to-back 2 TD games.
Jayden Higgins (IaSt) at West Virginia
I had a feeling that Iowa State was going to air it out more this season and that has been the case. I would prefer if Vegas was calling for Iowa State to score 30 points, but they are close at 27 points. The West Virginia defense can be tough on third downs, but once teams reach the red zone they are scoring TDs 75% of the time. The Mountaineer pass defense ranks #100 in fantasy points allowed, and give up 2.2 passing TDs/game. Higgins should be good for one of those TDs and reach 100 yards for the second straight week.
Volume Pigs
Raylen Sharpe (Fresno) vs. WAST.
Sharpe looks to be ascending on the Fresno State depth chart and the FCS transfer is coming off a 16 target performance. This is a game that could get wild in terms of total points scored and Sharpe offers a cheap (and likely available) option for those in need of a WR to start this week.
AJ Henning (NW) vs. Maryland
Henning has quietly become a volume pig for NW as he’s seen no less than seven targets in a game this season through five appearances. He faces a Maryland team that ranks 121st vs. the pass this week.
WIDE RECEIVERS: Sit ‘Em
Purple Reign
LaJohntay Wester (Colo) vs Kansas State
Despite my early season calls to drop Wester, he has proven me wrong and provided good/decent fantasy performance the last several weeks. The things going for Wester in this match-up is that Kansas State’s pass defenses ranks #101 in fantasy points allowed and the game is at home. I see several factors that make me want to sit him though. Kansas State is only giving up 1 passing TD/game, they have a third down conversion and red zone TDs allowed rate in the 30% range, and Vegas is calling for Colorado to score less than 30 points. Wester may not have a bad day, but just an average day in this one.
Germie Bernard (Bama) vs South Carolina
Bernard has scored 10+ fantasy points in his last four games which isn’t great but it is a solid floor. I have a hard time believing these stats, but the South Carolina pass defense ranks #34 in fantasy points allowed and only gives up 0.8 passing TDs/game. This is probably due to their run defense ranking #54 in fantasy points allowed. Bama’s rush offense ranks #5 in fantasy points scored and I think the ground game will likely dominate the scoring opportunities. If there are limited TD opportunities through the air Ryan Williams will likely snag the first TD. I’m just not sure if there’s enough passing TDs to go around for Bernard to get one.
Volume Pigs
Kevin Concepcion (NCST) vs. Syracuse
The volume KC is getting remains strong, but he hasn’t been able to do much with it, as is the case with most of this offence this year. Would bench him until he shows signs of life again.
TIGHT ENDS: Start ‘Em
Purple Reign
Gunnar Helm (Tex) at Oklahoma
Helm had his best game of the season against Michigan when the lights were the brightest. The offense spread the ball around against Michigan and I have a feeling the same thing will happen against Oklahoma. The Sooners rush defense is ranked #7 in fantasy points allowed which means it will be difficult for Texas to grind the ball on the ground in the red zone for TDs. While Texas is scoring TDs in the red zone 88.9% of the time, Oklahoma is holding opponents to TDs in the red zone 40% of the time. This red zone match-up will force the ball into other players’ hands and provide Helm good opportunities to score.
Volume Pigs
Taylor Thompson (JMU) vs. CoCar
Thompson has emerged as a productive player in that JMU offence with scores of 10 or more points in his last three appearances in 1PPR formats. He’s also scored twice and is averaging just shy of seven targets per game in that same time span. Coastal is currently 98th in the FBS in points allowed, so there should be plenty of scoring in this one.
TIGHT ENDS: Sit ‘Em
Purple Reign
Luke Lachey (Iowa) vs. Washington
The Washington defense is the strongest against the pass, ranking #3 in fantasy points allowed and only giving up 0.5 passing TDs/game. Iowa can barley compete a forward pass and that has held Lachey’s fantasy value in check. He has not scored a TD this season. and has reached 40+ receiving yards in only one game. I just don’t see him having a fantasy product day when the deck is stacked against him like this.
READER SUBMISSIONS
Andrew Bracht
Flex pick 1, 2PPR: RB Sloan (Ball) @ Kent, WR Horton (ColSt) vs SJSU, WR Harris (Miss) @ LSU?
DST pick 1: ND vs Stan, Army vs UAB, Wash @ Iowa, Tol @ Buff?
Purple Reign: FLEX: I’m a big fan of Sloan this week as I mentioned earlier in the article so I would roll with him over either receiver. DST: I grabbed Army a couple weeks ago in my home league for this match-up so they would be my top choice. I would rank the others Toledo, ND, then Washington.
Volume Pigs: I think I answered this on CTN, but Sloan is my answer, even in a 2PPR format. You probably watched that show so you know my reasoning, but overall the WRs in question both have strikes against them: Harris’ health, and Horton just hasn’t been the same player this year. Sloan also gets work in the air. We saw Iowa get picked apart in the air last week vs. OSU, so I wouldn’t choose them. I probably also expect Stanford to find some points vs. ND. I like the Army and Toledo matchups, with a slight lean to Army because UAB is just a shit show right now.
READER SUBMISSIONS
Ryan Proffitt
Scoring: 6 pt TD, non PPR, bonus system for 300+ passing, 150+ rushing, 125+ receiving
QB pick 3: Schager (Haw) vs Boise St, Holstein (Pitt) vs Cal, Shedeur (Colo) vs K State, JC French (GaSo) vs Marshall, Petras (UtSt) vs UNLV?
RB pick 2: Mafah (Clem) vs Wake, Sloan (Ball) vs Kent St, Faison (UtSt) vs UNLV, Walker (Wisc) vs Rutgers?
Purple Reign: QB: Holstein and Sanders are ranked similarly in my eyes and should be locked in. I think the Georgia Southern ground game may dominate the scoring opportunities so French is out. Petras is HOT right now and I find it hard to sit him even with Vegas calling for just 22 points from Utah State. RB: I covered Sloan earlier in the article and he is my favorite of your choices. I have Walker and Mafah pretty close to each other in my rankings. Vegas is calling for Clemson to score 40 points and Wisconsin to score 18 points. Both defenses give up about the same amount of rushing TDs/game, but Wake gives up far more passing TDs/game. You could flip a coin but I’ll go with Walker since I think he has a higher slice of the TD production in the offense and Mafah could have scoring opportunities stolen from the passing game.
Volume Pigs: Holstein is the only lock for me given his usage and the matchup (a Cal team that let Ward have a productive day the week before). Schager seems to be effective against other G5 programs and Boise couldn’t stop JC French in week one, so I’d roll with him too. I don’t know if I want to trust French or Petras right now. KSU’s defence is solid but weak vs. the pass, so I’d roll with Sanders for the last spot. On RB, I’d roll with Sloan and Faison because of how confident I am in their usage. Mafah is the bellcow for Clemson but they keep blowing people out and sitting him early that it’s hard to know what to expect. I also like Walker vs. Rutgers but think that game could be tough sledding for both offences.