Purple Reign takes a look at player prop bets and provides his evaluations on props that have caught his eye. While there is no guarantees in sports betting, Joe Arpasi looks to provide insight on wagers that he believes have a higher chance for success or failure. Please remember to bet responsibly.
BONUS BETS
While premium subscribers get access to all the prop bets that Joe Arpasi has identified, these “bonus bet” suggestions are free for everyone to review.
QB Miller Moss (Lou) 290.5 Passing Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Over the last four games Moss has thrown for 315+ yards three times. The ground game is banged up and the coaches are leaning on the passing game right now. This week’s game with Boston college received a passing match up grade of an A and BC is giving up 7.7 yards/pass attempt which is a pretty good advanced stat for Moss.
RB DeSean Bishop (Tenn) 77.5 Rushing Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Bishop has been on fire the last two weeks. Against Alabama and Arkansas he has ran for 146 and 123 yards. He faces Kentucky this week who normally has the reputation of a tough defense, but this match up features an A- rushing match up grade.
WR Malachi Toney (MiaFL) 83.5 Receiving Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Toney is another player who has stepped up in his last two games. He racked up 107 and 135 receiving yards against tough defenses in Louisville and Florida State. Now he gets to feast on a Stanford defense that gives up 8 yards/pass attempt and this game received an A passing match up grade for Miami.
MAIN BETS
QB Jackson Arnold (Aub) Anytime TD
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Yes
When it comes to anytime TDs with QBs you have to look for rushing TDs. Arnold has scored a rushing TD in four of his last five games. This week he takes on Arkansas and I handed out an A- rushing match up grade. It also helps that Arkansas is giving up 2.43 rushing TDs/game this season.
QB Sawyer Robertson (Bayl) 315.5 Passing Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
I do like these over props for Sawyer lately, as he’s throw for over 315 yards in his last three games. This is another situation where the RB room is banged up. I awarded this week’s passing match up with Cincinnati an A+ grade.
QB Taylen Green (Ark) 235.5 Passing Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
In seven games this season Green has thrown for less than 236 yards only one time and that was against Notre Dame. Vegas is calling for Arkansas to score 28 points which means they like their offensive chances, and I like the B+ passing match up grade that Arkansas has this week against Auburn.
QB Carson Beck (MiaFL) 245.5 Passing Yards
Confidence - Above Average
Bet Suggestion - Over
Over the last five games Beck has managed to throw for 260+ yards in three of those contests. One of the games where he missed that mark he did have 241 yards, close to this prop amount. As I stated for Malachi Toney, this week’s passing match up grade with Stanford is an A grade and the Cardinal are giving up 8 yards/pass attempt.
RB Emmett Johnson (Neb) 19.5 Rushing Attempts
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Under
In Johnson’s last six games he has received 20+ carries only once. After the game where he did receive 21 carries the coaching staff mentioned they want to limit his touches to keep him healthy. That bodes well for this prop, and he faces a Northwestern team that presents a C rushing match up grade this week.
RB Ahmad Hardy (Mizzou) 16.5 Rushing Attempts
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Hardy has received 22+ carries in five of his last six games. The only time he was held shy of that mark was against an Alabama defense that was dead set on stopping him. This week he goes up against a tough Vanderbilt team in what I’m expecting to be a slugfest of a game.
RB Roman Hemby (Ind) 61.5 Rushing Yards
Confidence - Above Average
Bet Suggestion - Over
Last week was a major stinker for Hemby as Indiana decided to ignore their rushing advantage and throw the ball all over the field. In the three games prior to that Hemby ran for 65, 86, & 70 yards. I handed Indiana an A grade for their rushing match up against UCLA. This Bruins defense is also giving up a pathetic 5 yards/carry on the season.
RB Jam Miller (Bama) 13.5 Rushing Attempts
Confidence - Above Average
Bet Suggestion - Over
Since coming back from injury Miller has run the ball for 16+ carries in three of his four games. Last week he struggled against Tennessee but I see this week as a bounce back opportunity. The rushing match up isn’t great with a C- grade but I think the coaching staff knows the offense clicks better when they feed Miller the ball and force the defense to be balanced.
WR Chris Bell (Lou) 99.5 Receiving Yards
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Bell has been on fire lately, racking up 135, 170, & 136 receiving yards in his last three games. During that span the RBs have been banged up and they still are this week. I mentioned this with Miller Moss, that Louisville has an A grade for their passing match up and Boston College is giving up 7.7 yards/pass attempt.
WR Elijah Sarratt (Ind) 81.5 Receiving Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Sarratt has been one of the most reliable WRs this season in CFF. He’s produced more receiving yards than this prop calls for in three of his last four games. I trust his reliability and like that he has a B+ passing match up grade with UCLA this week.
WR Jayce Brown (K St) 68.5 Receiving Yards
Confidence - Above Average
Bet Suggestion - Under
Brown started the year hot with 78 and 109 receiving yards in Weeks 0-1. Since then he’s hit 69+ receiving yards only once. This week brings rival Kansas and you never know what you’re going to get in rivalry games, but I don’t like the C+ passing match up grade or the fact that Kansas is only giving up 6.3 yards/pass attempt.
WR Ryan Davis (Utah) 5.5 Receptions
Confidence - Above Average
Bet Suggestion - Over
Over the last six games Davis has been held to less than 6 receptions only once and that was the offense’s worst outing of the season. I think the Utah offense getting firing again this week against Colorado who is giving up 7.5 yards/pass attempt.