Purple Reign takes a look at player prop bets and provides his evaluations on props that have caught his eye. While there is no guarantees in sports betting, Joe Arpasi looks to provide insight on wagers that he believes have a higher chance for success or failure. Please remember to bet responsibly.
BONUS BETS
While premium subscribers get access to all the prop bets that Joe Arpasi has identified, these “bonus bet” suggestions are free for everyone to review.
QB Avery Johnson (K St) 32.5 Pass Attempts
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Johnson is averaging 32.8 pass attempts/game on the season. Last week in a close game with Baylor he threw the ball 45 times. I see Kansas State playing from behind against TCU this week, and I gave this fantasy match-up a B+ grade for Johnson.
RB Leshon Williams (Kan) 55.5 Rushing Yards
Confidence - Above Average
Bet Suggestion - Under
In the three games Williams has been the start he has run for 129, 64, & 58 yards. Last week his yards/carry average took a hit, coming down to 4.8 yards/carry. Now he faces a Texas Tech defense that is the real deal. My fantasy match-up grade for this game is a D+ for Williams and The Red Raiders are giving up only 2.29 yards/carry on the season.
WR Makai Lemon (USC) 6.5 Receptions
Confidence - Above Average
Bet Suggestion - Over
Lemon has only had less than 7 receptions twice this year, which was against Georgia Southern (ground game dominated) and Purdue (underwhelming offensive day). The last two weeks Lemon has had 11 and 8 receptions. I’m also a fan of this fantasy match-up, handing out a B+ grade.
MAIN BETS
QB Bryson Barnes (UtSt) Anytime TD
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Yes
Anytime TDs for QBs really means rushing TDs. Barnes has scored a rushing TD in 3/5 games this season, with the Texas A&M and Vanderbilt games as they only ones without a rushing TD. Barnes now gets to play Hawaii who is a much better match-up, where I see the rushing fantasy match-up as a B-.
QB Josh Hoover (TCU) 1.5 Passing TDs
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Looking over Hoover’s games this season, he has scored a minimum of 2 passing TDs in every game except Arizona State (with multiple 4+ TD games). He faces a Kansas State pass defense that provides a B+ fantasy match-up grade. While the K-State pass defenses isn’t giving up a lot of passing TDs this season, the TCU rushing game hasn’t gotten back on track meaning the offense will have to continue to lean on the passing game.
QB Jayden Maiava (USC) 1.5 Passing TDs
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
The only game this season where Maiava failed to score 2+ TDs was the poor road trip to Purdue. Michigan comes to Los Angeles this week, and their pass defense only gives up 1.2 passing TDs/game. I still handed out a B+ fantasy match-up grade for the USC passing game.
QB Garrett Nussmeier (LSU) 263.5 Passing Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Under
Nussmeier has failed to pass for 240+ yards against any FBS team this season. It looks like he should play this week while being banged up for several weeks now. He has to face a tough South Carolina defense. This fantasy match-up is just a C and the Gamecocks are middle of the road in terms of yards allowed/pass attempt.
RB Mike Washington (Ark) Anytime TD
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Yes
Washington has scored a TD in every game this season expect last week’s beatdown from Notre Dame. Vegas expects Arkansas to score 28 points this week, and Tennessee is giving up 2.2 rushing TDs per game. The Razorbacks match up well in the air and on the ground this week, as I gave the rushing fantasy match-up a B+ grade.
RB Mike Washington (Ark) 54.5 Rushing Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
You can fully assume that I think there’s good things going for Washington this week. Washington had run for 60+ yards in every game this season while averaging 6.4 yards/carry. Tennessee is giving up 2.8 yards/carry but I think the Arkansas passing threat will help keep the defense honest and allow Washington a little more room to run through the box.
RB Bo Jackson (OSU) 72.5 Rushing Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Despite receiving fluctuating workloads this season, Jackson has run for 75+ yards in 3/4 games. Last week against Minnesota was the one exception, and that run defense is much better than Illinois’. Ohio State was given a B- grade for this fantasy match-up, and Illinois is giving up 4 yards/carry this season.
RB TJ Harden (SMU) 14.5 Rushing Attempts
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Harden has received 15+ carries in all four games that he has spent as the starting running back. SMU should mind more success in the air than on the ground this week, which makes believe they can jump out to an early lead. As the game goes on I see Harden getting fed regularly to run down the clock.
WR Junior Vandeross (Toled) Anytime TD
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Yes
Vanderoos is a guy who knows how to score, doing so in 4/5 games this year. He travels to Bowling Green this week for a B- fantasy match-up. I think this grade is actually pretty good considering how underwhelming the Toledo passing game has been this season. Bowling Green gives up the same amount of TDs in the air as compared to on the ground.
WR Jeremiah Smith (OSU) 6.5 Receptions
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
After the first two games of the season Smith has been able to make this prop’s mark week after week. We’ve seen that this Illinois defense isn’t living up to its preseason billing. Ohio State has an A+ passing match-up grade for this week and Smith should have to problem taking advantage of it.
WR Jackson Harris (Haw) Anytime TD
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Yes
Harris had 6 catches for 1 TD in Week 0, but spent the next 5 weeks banged up. He returned to the line-up fully healthy in Week 6 and hauled in 7 receptions for 2 TDs. He faces Utah State at home this week, and the Aggies are giving up 2.2 passing TDs per game.
WR Bryant Wesco (Clem) Anytime TD
Confidence - Above Average
Bet Suggestion - Yes
Wesco has scored a TD in three of the last four games. While I expected him to score last week against North Carolina, he was held out of the endzone. This week he gets Boston College and I’ve handed out an A grade for the fantasy match up. BC is also giving up 2.2 passing TDs/game.