Purple Reign takes a look at player prop bets and provides his evaluations on props that have caught his eye. While there is no guarantees in sports betting, Joe Arpasi looks to provide insight on wagers that he believes have a higher chance for success or failure. Please remember to bet responsibly.
BONUS BETS
While premium subscribers get access to all the prop bets that Joe Arpasi has identified, these “bonus bet” suggestions are free for everyone to review.
QB Blake Horvath (Navy) 95.5 Rushing Yards
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Horvath has run for 110+ yards in his last two games (42 total carries) and appears to be fully healthy. I gave his rushing fantasy match-up with Air Force an A- grade as Air Force gives up 4.8 yards/carry on the season.
RB Emmett Johnson (Neb) 90.5 Rushing Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Under
After starting the season hot Johnson has cooled down over the last two weeks. He run for 78 and 65 yards in that span and the coaches are talking about cutting his total reps heading into this week’s game to preserve his health. He takes on Michigan State who is giving up 4.19 yards/carry but my rushing fantasy match-p grade is just a C+ for this week.
WR Raphael Williams (Pitt) 47.5 Receiving Yards
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Over
The season opener against a non-scholarship FCS school is the only game where Williams failed to hit 48 yards. I’m a big fan of this week’s passing match-up with Pitt, giving it an A- grade. Pitt is giving up 6.6 yards/pass attempt which is average but I still have faith Williams with hit the 48 yards needed for this prop.
MAIN BETS
QB Dylan Raiola (Neb) 244.5 Passing Yards
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Raiola has met this passing threshold in two of his last three game (364 & 308 yards). When talking about Emmett Johnson I said the rushing match-up this week received a C+ grade, but I have handed out an A+ grade for the passing match-up (maybe my favorite passing match-up of the week). The Michigan State defense is bleeding passing yards, giving up 7.6 yards/pass attempt.
QB AJ Swann (App) 230.5 Passing Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Swann started the season off with 368 passing yardage and 294 passing yardage performances but has cooled off the last two games. This has helped move his passing yards prop down and this is a great week to take advantage. I graded the passing match-up with Oregon State an A, and the Beavers are giving up a whopping 9 yards/pass attempt.
QB CJ Carr (ND) 2.5 Passing TDs
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Under
Carr had a fantastic game last week against Arkansas, throwing for 354 yards and 4 TDs. This was the only game where he has thrown for more than 2 TDs on the season. When it comes to how Notre Dame matches-up with Boise State, there is a huge advantage in the running game for the Irish (A rushing match-up grade). The passing match-up only got a B- grade and Boise State is giving up just 1 passing TD/game.
QB Brendon Lewis (Mem) 57.5 Rushing Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
While Lewis has caught fire the last two weeks, he’s be able to rush for at lest 58 yards in four of his five games (13 carries/game average). This week’s game with Tulsa looks fantastic, getting an A+ fantasy rushing match-up grade with Tulsa giving up 4.37 yards/carry.
RB Greg Desrosiers (Mem) 65.5 Rushing Yards
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Desrosiers missed time due to injury after Week 1. He made a partial return two weeks ago but last week he looked like he was back to 100%, carrying the ball 19 times for 204 yards and 3 TDs. This week’s game with Tulsa looks fantastic, getting an A+ fantasy rushing match-up grade with Tulsa giving up 4.37 yards/carry.
RB Dylan Edwards (K St) Anytime TD
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Yes
After getting injured in his Week 0 debut, Edwards returned from injury last week and carried the ball 20 times for 166 yards and a TD. He looks comfortable in the lead RB role. He takes on Baylor this week with Vegas calling on Kansas State to score 27.5 points and I really like that Baylor is giving up 2 rushing TDs/game.
RB Anthony Hankerson (OreSt) 88.5 Rushing Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Under
Hankerson has not lived up to the hefty expectations that were placed on him in the offseason. The only time he has rushed for enough yards to meet this prop bet was against Fresno State in Week 2. Appalachian State is a very bad rushing match-up (getting a D- match-up grade). The Beavers passing game does have a favorable match-up and I see the play calling being light on the run side.
RB Kaytron Allen (PSU) 82.5 Rushing Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Allen has rushed for 80+ yards in half of his games against the likes of Florida International and an FCS school. The other two games he was held to 43 and 54 yards rushing. I feel good about Allen this week because he faces lowly UCLA. I gave the rushing match-up an A grade this week and UCLA is giving up 5.35 yards/carry on the year.
WR Jacory Barney (Neb) 52.5 Receiving Yards
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Barney has been very hot this season having two performances with 120+ receiving yards, and having two performances with less than 30 receiving yards. I mentioned earlier this is probably my favorite passing match-up of the week (A+ grade) and the Michigan State defense is bleeding passing yards, giving up 7.6 yards/pass attempt.
WR Raphael Williams (Pitt) Anytime TD
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Yes
The season opener against a non-scholarship FCS school is the only game where Williams failed to score a TD. I’m a big fan of this week’s passing match-up with Pitt, giving it an A- grade. Vegas is also calling on BC to score 31.5 points in the game.
WR Trent Walker (OreSt) 68.5 Receiving Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Walker is a target machine which makes it easier to feel safe with yardage probs. He did play against Oregon but didn’t register a catch. If you remove that game, then he has had three out of four games where re totaled at least 99 yards receiving. Earlier I stated that Oregon State has a favorable passing match-up, getting a B grade for the week. What I like here is that Appalachian State is giving up 7.4 yards/pass attempt.
WR Hank Beatty (Ill) 67.5 Receiving Yards
Confidence - Above Average
Bet Suggestion - Over
Beatty has been pretty reliable for Illinois with the exception of a two week stretch against Western Michigan and Indiana. He hit 80+ receiving yards in his other three games. Purdue is tougher against the pass than you’d think this year which resulted in my handing out a B- passing match-up grade. But Purdue is terrible when it comes to giving up passing yards, dishing out 8.7 yards/pass attempt.