Purple Reign takes a look at player prop bets and provides his evaluations on props that have caught his eye. While there is no guarantees in sports betting, Joe Arpasi looks to provide insight on wagers that he believes have a higher chance for success or failure. Please remember to bet responsibly.
BONUS BETS
While premium subscribers get access to all the prop bets that Joe Arpasi has identified, these “bonus bet” suggestions are free for everyone to review.
QB Kyron Drones (VaTec) Anytime TD
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Yes
Drones has scored rushing TDs in his last three games, with two rushing TDs in his last game against an FCS school. He now faces NC State who gives up 2.25 rushing TDs/game, and I gave this rushing fantasy match-up a B+ grade.
RB LJ Martin (BYU) 100.5 Rushing Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Over the course of the season Martin has rushed for 101+ yards in every game. Colorado is up next and the are giving up 4.55 yards/carry. I gave this rushing fantasy match-up an A- grade which makes things look good for Martin to hit this prop.
WR KJ Duff (Rut) 3.5 Receptions
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Over
This prop is free money. Duff is averaging 6 receptions/game on the season, with 5 receptions being his low point. The Minnesota rush defense is tough and this will force Rutgers to have to rely more on the pass than normal.
MAIN BETS
QB Joey Aguilar (Tenn) 2.5 Passing TDs
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
The only game this season that Aguilar has thrown for less than 3 TDs came against an FCS school. Vegas likes Tennessee to score 34.5 points against Mississippi State, and Aguilar gets a B+ passing fantasy match-up grade this week.
QB Darian Mensah (Duke) 290.5 Passing Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Last week was the only time that Mensah has been held to less than 291 passing yards. He’s thrown for 313 or more yards in all of his other games. I gave this passing fantasy match-up an A+ grade and Vegas which is as good as it gets.
QB Parker Navarro (Ohio) 219.5 Passing Yards
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Over
The Ohio State game was the only time Navarro has been held to less than 239 yards passing. I’m a huge fan of Ohio’s match-up with Bowling Green this week and I handed out a B+ grade for this passing fantasy match-up.
QB Kaidon Salter (Colo) 191.5 Passing Yards
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Under
Salter has been dealing with an undisclosed injury but looks to be probable this week. Last week against Wyoming is the only time that Salter has thrown for 160+ yards. BYU’s stout rush defense will force Colorado to throw, but I don’t think Colorado has what it take. That’s why I have a C grade for this passing fantasy match-up.
RB Jadarian Price (ND) Anytime TD
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Yes
In the last two weeks Price has scored 2 TDs against Texas A&M and 3 TDs against Purdue. They’re playing Arkansas who gives up almost two rushing TDs/game. I see the Razorbacks giving up plenty of rushing TDs this week and I deemed this rushing fantasy match-up a B+ grade.
RB Hollywood Smothers (NCSt) 108.5 Rushing Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Smothers has run for 123+ yards in his last three games and was only held to less than 100 yards in the season opener. I handed out a B+ grade for this rushing fantasy match-up with Virginia Tech, who is giving up 4.6 yards/carry on the season.
RB Seih Bangura (Ohio) 86.5 Rushing Yards
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Bangura has been up and down with his rushing performances but three of his four games have been against Power 4 schools. He managed to hit 86 rushing yards against Rutgers and put up 123 yards last week against a FCS school. I said I liked this match-up with Bowling Green before. They’re giving up 3.5 yards/carry and Ohio earned a B+ grade for rushing fantasy match-up.
RB Demond Claiborne (Wake) 16.5 Rushing Attempts
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Under
In three games this season Claiborne has had 3, 10, and 12 carries. He takes on Georgia Tech who has some favorable stats for Claiborne in the rushing game (B+ match-up grade & 3.96 yards/carry allowed). Vegas thinks Wake will only score 19 points which makes me think the game script will eventually get flipped and make Wake Forest have to thrown from behind.
WR Chase Hendricks (Ohio) Anytime TD
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Yes
Back to Ohio players again. Hendricks has scored in his last three games which includes tough defenses like Ohio State and West Virginia. Bowling Green is only giving up 1.25 passing TDs/game but they haven’t been tested yet.
WR Makai Lemon (USC) 5.5 Receptions
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Over the first three games of the year Lemon had 7, 4, and 5 receptions. Last week J’Kobi Lane was injured and Lemon’s receptions shot up to 8. Lemon may not play again this week. After what Indiana did in the air against Illinois, I give this passing fantasy match-up an A- grade.
WR Mario Craver (TxAM) Anytime TD
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Yes
Betting on anytime TDs with Craver has paid off all season. He has never been held out of the endzone. I handed out an A- passing fantasy match-up grade despite the fact that Auburn is only giving up 1.5 passing TDs/game.
WR Jayce Brown (K St) 73.5 Receiving Yards
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Under
As Avery Johnson’s passing has gone downhill, so has Brown’s stats. He beat this prop amount in the first two weeks of the season but has put up 29 & 68 receiving yards in his last two games. The UCF defense has this offense outclassed, forcing me to give this passing fantasy match-up a C- grade.