Purple Reign takes a look at player prop bets and provides his evaluations on props that have caught his eye. While there is no guarantees in sports betting, Joe Arpasi looks to provide insight on wagers that he believes have a higher chance for success or failure. Please remember to bet responsibly.
BONUS BETS
While premium subscribers get access to all the prop bets that Joe Arpasi has identified, these “bonus bet” suggestions are free for everyone to review.
QB Dante Moore (Oreg) 2.5 Passing TDs
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Over
In the first two weeks of the season Moore threw for 3 TDs, but failed to do so in week 3. I believe that has more to do with traveling 3 times zones than it does his performance. He won’t have to worry about long travel for this week’s Civil War game against Oregon State. The Oregon offense should like back to the form it was playing at when they put a beatdown on Oklahoma State.
RB Daniel Hishaw (Kan) 0.5 Rushing TDs
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Under
There’s a couple things I like about this prop. Hishaw has only rushed for 1 TD all season and that was against an FCS opponent. He is dealing with an undisclosed injury and is probable for this week’s game against West Virginia. If he does play he might see a smaller workload against a rush defense that only allows 2.36 yards/carry.
WR Bryant Wesco (Clem) 66.5 Receiving Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Wesco has racked up 100+ yards in his last two games, and had 66 yards against LSU in Week 1. I think Clemson plays with their hair on fire in this game, which is why I’m igoring my B- passing fantasy match-up grade. Syracuse is giving up 3rd down conversions 42.6% of the time which means the Clemson offense should sustain more drives and give Wesco plenty of opportunities to rack up yards.
MAIN BETS
QB Sawyer Robertson (Bayl) 308.5 Passing Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Last week against an FCS opponent was the first time Robertson was held to less than 419 yards passing (the ground game did most of the work). His two 419+ passing performances came against SMU and Auburn - quality opponents. I see no way that he misses this prop mark against Arionna State.
QB Sawyer Robertson (Bayl) 2.5 Passing TDs
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Robertson has put up two 3 passing TD performance and one 4 passing TD game this season. I gave this passing fantasy match-up an A grade and Arizona State is giving up more passing TDs per/game than they are rushing.
QB CJ Bailey (NCSt) 243.5 Passing Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Under
When I look at the rushing/passing match-ups for this game I see that Duke is far worse against the run than they are the pass. They’re giving up 3.56 yards/carry and 3 rushing TDs/game. I see NC State leaning on the ground game this week which will limit Bailey’s passing opportunities. I also like the fact that Bailey has only gone over this passing yardage mark once this year.
QB Taylen Green (Ark) 255.5 Passing Yards
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Green has thrown for 300+ yards in 2/3 games this season. He takes on a Memphis defense that ranks well defensively but hasn’t played a challenging opponent yet. His lowest passing yardage total of the season was 239, only 16.5 yards away from this very easy to exceed prop.
RB Robert Henry (UTSA) 1.5 Rushing TDs
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
This prop doesn’t get any easier to break down. Henry has scored 2 rushing TDs in every game this season. He’s taking on a Colorado State defense that gives up 4.07 yards/carry and 3 rushing TDs/game. This rushing fantasy match-up is so juicy I gave it an A- grade.
RB Jonah Coleman (Wash) 108.5 Rushing Yards
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Here’s another juicy rushing fantasy match-up you can take advantage of (A grade). Washington State is giving up 4.16 yards/carry. The Apple Cup is being played at Wazzu but I don’t think that will help slow down Coleman. He’s been red hot this season rushing for 111 and 177 yards in his two games. Expect more of the same this week.
RB Hollywood Smothers (NCSt) 97.5 Rushing Yards
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Over
I mentioned earlier that the Duke defense is bad against the run and I see NC State exploiting that in their gameplan. Smothers has gotten 22+ carries in 2/3 games this season, with 17 being his lowest mark. He’s also ran for 140 or more yards in 2/3 games. I see Smothers have a HUGE week.
RB Justice Haynes (Mich) 85.5 Rushing Yards
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Haynes has been rock solid this season. He run for over 100 yards in every game. His toughest match-up was against a good Oklahoma defense that gave up 125 rushing yards to him. The best team Nebraska has played is Cincinnati (not a rushing powerhouse) and they are giving up 4.04 yards/attempt on the season.
WR Makai Lemon (USC) 83.5 Receiving Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
In week 2 Boston College put up 390 passing yards against Michigan State in East Lancing. We all know the USC offense can air the ball out and they have much better talent on the outside than BC. Lemon has exceeded this 83.5 receiving yard prop in 2/3 games this season. I have my doubts that Michigan State will make it two weeks in a row that Lemon is held under this mark.
WR Dane Key (Neb) 42.5 Receiving Yards
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Over
I have more faith in the Nebraska passing game this week than most people do. Michigan has been giving yards in the air all season, no matter if its Oklahoma or New Mexico. Key hasn’t faced a defense this good yet but he has exceed this prop mark in 2/3 games. Last week he went for over 100 yards. Since Michigan is tougher against the run I think Nebraska will be forced to throw more and that will give Key more opportunities for targets.
WR Denzel Boston (Wash) Anytime TD
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Yes
Boston scored in the season opener but was held out of the end zone against an FCS school. He wasn’t needed that game as Jonah Coleman bulldozed his way through that defense. In the Apple Cup you can expect the Husky offense to air it out more than we’ve see yet and Washington state is giving up 1.67 passing TDs per game.
WR Josh Cameron (Bayl) 57.5 Receiving Yards
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Cameron’s performances have been up and down this season. Auburn loaded their secondary to lock him down and he was held under this prop mark. Against SMU he bounced back with 151 yards. Last week against an FCS school the ground game did most of the damage. I gave this passing fantasy match-up an A grade and I think Cameron has a good chance to hit the 100 yard mark again.