Purple Reign takes a look at player prop bets and provides his evaluations on props that have caught his eye. While there is no guarantees in sports betting, Joe Arpasi looks to provide insight on wagers that he believes have a higher chance for success or failure. Please remember to bet responsibly.
BONUS BETS
While premium subscribers get access to all the prop bets that Joe Arpasi has identified, these “bonus bet” suggestions are free for everyone to review.
QB Micah Alejado (Haw) 304.5 Passing Yards
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Alejado has thrown for 300+ yards in his last three games. While he missed this prop amount once during that time, this week’s game with San Jose State looks fantastic for him. He received an A+ passing match up grade and San Jose State is giving up 9 yards/pass attempt.
RB Antwan Raymond (Rut) 76.5 Rushing Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Over the last four games Raymond has missed this prop amount only once and that was against Ohio State which is to be expected. Illinois ranks #111 for giving up fantasy points to RBs (according to Fantrax) and they’re giving up 4.1 yards/carry on the season.
WR Jackson Harris (Haw) 83.5 Receiving Yards
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Since coming back from injury Harris has racked up over 100 yards in every game. As I mentioned before with Alejado, this game received an A+ passing match up grade and San Jose State is giving up 9 yards/pass attempt. Expect Harris to hit 100+ yards again this week.
MAIN BETS
QB Drew Mestemaker (NorTx) 291.5 Passing Yards
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Mestemaker went off last week for 608 passing yards, and he hit 336 passing yards three games ago. When reviewing the passing match up with Navy this week he received an A+ match up grade. Navy is also giving up 7.8 yards/pass attempt in 2025.
QB Mason Heintschel (Pitt) 283.5 Passing Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Since becoming the starter Heintschel has failed to throw for 300+ yards only one time. Vegas expects Pitt to score 33 points this week and I can see why. My passing match up grade for this game is an A+ and Stanford is giving up 7.9 yards/pass attempt.
QB Luke Altmyer (Ill) 276.5 Passing Yards
Confidence - Above Average
Bet Suggestion - Over
Its not often you’ll see me highlighting Altmyer for a passing prop bet. In his last two games he was held under this prop but that was against Washington & Ohio State. He threw for 300+ yards in the two games prior to those. I handed out an A- passing match up grade for him this week and his opponent Rutgers gives up a whopping 9.3 yards/pass attempt.
QB Darian Mensah (Duke) 272.5 Passing Yards
Confidence - Above Average
Bet Suggestion - Under
Last week Mensah had a 373 passing yard performance but he failed to throw for 270 yards in the three games prior to that. He takes on Clemson this week and I see things I like about the match up and things I’m a little concerned with. Duke might be playing from behind giving him more opportunities to throw the ball. My passing match up grade for this week is an A-, but Clemson only gives up 6.4 yards/pass attempt which is a bad advanced stat for Mensah.
RB Justice Haynes (Mich) 112.5 Rushing Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Despite dealing with injuries Haynes has rushed for more than 112 yards in three of his last four games. Purdue give up almost 4 yards/carry and this game got an A- grade for its rushing match up.
RB Anthony Hankerson (OreSt) 90.5 Rushing Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Over the last two weeks Hankerson has rushed for 204 and 101 yards. The 204 yards did come against an FCS team though. He faces Washington State this week in a game that got a rushing match up grade of a C. I still like this prop bet since Hankerson is on a hot streak and the Cougars are giving up 4.1 yards/carry this season.
RB Jadarian Price (ND) 2+ TDs
Confidence - Above Average
Bet Suggestion - Yes
I am going to admit that this is a pure gut call on my part. Price has only scored 2+ TDs in a game three times this year, and in one of those games he got the second TD on a single 35 yard reception. What my gut likes here is that Vegas thinks that Notre dame will score 43 points, they get an A rushing match up grade against Boston College, and BC ranks #91 in fantasy points allowed to RBs (according to Fantrax).
RB Isaac Brown (Lou) 92.5 Rushing Yards
Confidence - Above Average
Bet Suggestion - Over
Since Brown has returned to action from a lower leg injury he’s rushed for 100+ yards in every game and is averaging 10.96 yards/carry. He faces Virginia Tech this week who provides a good but not great rushing match up (B rushing match up grade). But Virginia Tech is giving up 4.03 yards/carry which Brown should easily be able to exploit.
WR KJ Duff (Rut) Anytime TD
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Yes
WR Ian Strong is out with an injury and last week Duffy stepped in as the WR1 for the offense amassing 241 receiving yards against Purdue. He faces Illinois this week who is a better team but one that struggles against the pass. Illinois gives up 7.3 yards/pass attempt and Duff gets an A passing match up grade.
WR Jackson Harris (Haw) Anytime TD
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Yes
I’m a huge believer in what Harris is capable of for the remainder of the 2025 season. This is the second prop bet I’m recommending for him this week. He’s scored 4 TDs over the last three weeks and I see him reaching the endzone once again this week. I mentioned earlier the passing match up is great so I’m piggybacking another prop on this game.
WR Makai Lemon (USC) 93.5 Receiving Yards
Confidence - Above Average
Bet Suggestion - Under
Lemon’s production has been taking a dip lately. After posting games with 127 and 151 receiving yards he’s seen his numbers drop to 93 and 76 receiving yards the last two games. He’s now going up against a Nebraska pass defense that gives up a stingy 5 yards/pass attempt.
WR Isaiah Sategna (Okla) Anytime TD
Confidence - Above Average
Bet Suggestion - Yes
Even though the Oklahoma offense hasn’t scored 30 points in their last two games Sategna has managed to reach the end zone in both of those contests. Vegas expects the Sooners to stay uder 30 points again against Tennessee but the match up gives me hope that Oklahoma can prove Vegas wrong. This passing match up received an A- grade and Tennessee is giving up 2 passing TDs/game (which is considered pretty good for Sategna).